HNK Rijeka v NK Varazdin prediction · HNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HNK RijekaDrawNK Varazdin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · HNK Rijeka 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HNK Rijeka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HNK Rijeka 49%, draw 30%, NK Varazdin 21%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on HNK Rijeka v NK VarazdinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

HNK Rijeka win49%

Draw30%

NK Varazdin win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion HNK Rijeka

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HNK Rijeka

NK Varazdin

11Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the Croatian Cup

Last match: 24 Oct · HNL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	NK Varazdin	11	+5	18
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hnk rijeka winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make HNK Rijeka a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HNK Rijeka v NK Varazdin~~1.40 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 18~~5 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HNK Rijeka win	49%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
NK Varazdin win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
HNK Rijeka or draw	79%	–	–
HNK Rijeka clean sheet	44%	–	–
NK Varazdin clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 12.0 7.9 3.7 1 14.0 13.4 5.1 2 10.5 8.6 3.6 3 4.9 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HNK Rijeka down, NK Varazdin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 951 HNL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HNK Rijeka at home: 2.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). NK Varazdin away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for HNK Rijeka, 0.83 for NK Varazdin. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NKV 2–0 HNK · NKV 1–0 HNK · HNK 3–1 NKV · NKV 1–0 HNK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 31 Aug

HNK RIJEKA

DWDWLW0–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 2–1

NK VARAZDIN

DDDWLL0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	10	+10	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	11	+5	18
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
6	NK Slaven Belupo	11	−9	13
7	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	−4	11
9	HNK Gorica	11	−8	7
10	Rudes	10	−14	7