HNK Hajduk Split v NK Varazdin

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said HNK Hajduk Split win at 53%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: HNK Hajduk Split was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–28–19
3. 1′KICK-OFF HNK Hajduk Split v NK Varazdin
4. 24′SUBSTITUTION · 23' NK Varazdin · NK Varazdin
5. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Dario Marešić · HNK Hajduk Split
6. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' HNK Hajduk Split win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
7. 43′We said HNK Hajduk Split at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–41–18
8. 44′9 shots for HNK Hajduk Split, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 41–41–18
9. 45′HALF-TIME HNK Hajduk Split 0–0 NK Varazdin
10. 45′SECOND HALF HNK Hajduk Split 0–0 NK Varazdin
11. 47′We said HNK Hajduk Split at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
12. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was HNK Hajduk Split win 38%)
13. 56′HNK Hajduk Split have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 35–49–16
14. 57′We said HNK Hajduk Split at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
15. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Tomislav Duvnjak · NK Varazdin
16. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' HNK Hajduk Split win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
17. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Abdoulie Sanyang · Off: Andelo Šutalo
18. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' NK Varazdin · On: David Puclin · Off: Tomislav Duvnjak
19. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' NK Varazdin · On: Emmanuel Uchegbu Chimeroucheya · Off: Petar Bočkaj
20. 64′We said HNK Hajduk Split at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–14
21. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Aleksa Latkovic · NK Varazdin
22. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Simun Hrgovic · Off: Dario Melnjak
23. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Adrion Pajaziti · Off: Khalil Fayad Corrected
24. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Adrion Pajaziti · Off: Alberto del Moral
25. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Michele Šego · Off: Marko Livaja
26. 71′We said HNK Hajduk Split at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
27. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' HNK Hajduk Split win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
28. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Adam Huram · Off: marin soticek
29. 76′We said HNK Hajduk Split at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' NK Varazdin · On: Ivan Posavec · Off: luka mamic
31. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' NK Varazdin · On: Luka Skaricic · Off: Aleksa Latkovic
32. 80′We said HNK Hajduk Split at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–7
33. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' HNK Hajduk Split win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
34. 84′We said HNK Hajduk Split at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
35. 84′HNK Hajduk Split have had 16 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 9–86–5
36. 85′We published HNK Hajduk Split at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–4–0
37. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 NK Varazdin
38. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' HNK Hajduk Split win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
39. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' HNK Hajduk Split win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 4%)
40. 86′Mathieu Acapandie scores for HNK Hajduk Split on 86′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 96–4–0
41. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' HNK Hajduk Split win: 53% at kick-off, 96% now
42. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Adrion Pajaziti · HNK Hajduk Split
43. FTFULL TIME HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 NK Varazdin
44. FTHNK Hajduk Split 1–0 NK Varazdin · HNK Hajduk Split win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.