HNK Hajduk Split v HNK Gorica prediction · HNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HNK Hajduk SplitDrawHNK Gorica

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · HNK Hajduk Split 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HNK Hajduk Split are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HNK Hajduk Split 63%, draw 24%, HNK Gorica 13%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on HNK Hajduk Split v HNK GoricaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

HNK Hajduk Split win63%

Draw24%

HNK Gorica win13%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Poljud

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Gorica

9Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 24 Oct · HNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hnk hajduk split winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make HNK Hajduk Split a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HNK Hajduk Split v HNK Gorica~~1.82 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 31 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 7~~1 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HNK Hajduk Split win	63%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
HNK Gorica win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
HNK Hajduk Split or draw	87%	–	–
HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet	50%	–	–
HNK Gorica clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 9.0 4.8 2.0 1 13.7 11.1 3.6 2 13.1 9.2 3.3 3 8.0 5.6 4 3.7 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HNK Hajduk Split down, HNK Gorica across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 951 HNL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HNK Hajduk Split at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). HNK Gorica away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for HNK Hajduk Split, 0.71 for HNK Gorica. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GOR 1–2 HAJ · HAJ 1–0 GOR · GOR 1–0 HAJ · GOR 1–3 HAJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 31 Aug

HNK HAJDUK SPLIT

WWWLWW2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0

HNK GORICA

LDWLDD0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	10	+10	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	11	+5	18
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
6	NK Slaven Belupo	11	−9	13
7	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	−4	11
9	HNK Gorica	11	−8	7
10	Rudes	10	−14	7