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HNK Hajduk Split v Dinamo Zagreb

HNK Hajduk Split

2–1Full time

Dinamo Zagreb

HNL · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Poljud

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb DINAMO ZAGREB WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Zagreb win~~39%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.653

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.728

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Zagreb win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Zagreb was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
1′KICK-OFF HNK Hajduk Split v Dinamo Zagreb
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Dion Drena Beljo · Dinamo Zagreb
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 Dinamo Zagreb
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 Dinamo Zagreb · Dion Drena Beljo
22′Dinamo Zagreb ahead on 21′ through Dion Drena Beljo. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–21–67
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Dinamo Zagreb win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 Dinamo Zagreb · Dion Drena Beljo
24′Ron Raqi scores for HNK Hajduk Split on 24′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–30–37
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 Dinamo Zagreb · Ron Raqi
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Dinamo Zagreb win: 39% at kick-off, 37% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Dinamo Zagreb win 32%)
46′SECOND HALF HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 Dinamo Zagreb
54′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 27–43–30
58′59′ and it is 2–1: Abdoulie Sanyang on the scoresheet for HNK Hajduk Split. 2–1 · 72–22–6
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb · Scott Mckenna
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Dinamo Zagreb win: 39% at kick-off, 6% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' HNK Hajduk Split win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 22%)
61′⚽ GOAL · 59' HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb · Abdoulie Sanyang (assist Michele Šego)
63′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–1 · 74–21–5
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ron Raqi · HNK Hajduk Split
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Luka Stojkovic · Off: Lukas Kacavenda
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Iker Almena Horcajo · Off: Mateo Lisica
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Niko Galesic · Off: Paul Tabinas
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Dani Rodríguez · Off: Miha Zajc
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Dalisson De Almeida Leite · HNK Hajduk Split
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Moris Valincic · Off: Sergi Dominguez
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Andelo Šutalo · Off: Abdoulie Sanyang
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Dario Melnjak · Off: marin soticek
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Leander Dendoncker · Off: Khalil Fayad
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Dennis Hadzikadunić · Off: Ron Raqi
97′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Dion Drena Beljo · Dinamo Zagreb
97′⚽ GOAL · 21' HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb · Dion Drena Beljo (assist Matteo Perez Vinlöf)
97′⚽ GOAL · 24' HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb · Scott Mckenna
97′⚽ GOAL · 59' HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb · Abdoulie Sanyang (assist Michele Šego)
97′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ron Raqi · HNK Hajduk Split
97′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Luka Stojkovic · Off: Lukas Kacavenda
97′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Iker Almena Horcajo · Off: Mateo Lisica
97′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Niko Galesic · Off: Paul Tabinas
97′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Dani Rodríguez · Off: Miha Zajc
97′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Dalisson De Almeida Leite · HNK Hajduk Split
97′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Moris Valincic · Off: Sergi Dominguez
97′SUBSTITUTION · 76' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Andelo Šutalo · Off: Abdoulie Sanyang
97′SUBSTITUTION · 89' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Dario Melnjak · Off: marin soticek
97′SUBSTITUTION · 90' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Leander Dendoncker · Off: Khalil Fayad
97′SUBSTITUTION · 90' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Dennis Hadzikadunić · Off: Ron Raqi
104′SUBSTITUTION · 104' HNK Hajduk Split · On: Carlos Martín Domínguez · Off: Dalisson De Almeida Leite
FTFULL TIME HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb
FTHNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb · Dinamo Zagreb win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

HNK Hajduk Split win34%

Draw27%

Dinamo Zagreb win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Stadion Poljud

Referee · Igor Pajac

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split

4-2-3-1

33 T. Silic

22 M. Acapandie

15 D. Maresic

14 R. Raci

32 S. Hrgovic

20 A. del Moral

8 K. Fayad

7 A. Sanyang

9 D. de Almeida

23 M. Soticek

11 M. Sego

Coach · Gonzalo Garcia

Substitutes

44 · D. Stipica

99 · D. Fesyuk

5 · A. Van Hoorenbeeck

17 · D. Melnjak

6 · D. Hadzikadunic

3 · R. Gabric

77 · C. Martin

26 · A. Huram

18 · L. Dendoncker

19 · E. Brruti

16 · A. Sutalo

10 · M. Livaja

Dinamo Zagreb

4-3-3

24 D. Kotarski

13 P. Tabinas

36 S. Dominguez

26 S. McKenna

22 M. Perez Vinlof

80 L. Kacavenda

5 K. Kravtsov

8 M. Zajc

21 M. Lisica

9 D. Beljo

17 L. Ivanusec

Coach · Mario Kovacevic

Substitutes

44 · I. Filipovic

3 · B. Goda

25 · M. Valincic

6 · S. Radeljic

15 · N. Galesic

20 · R. Mudrazija

7 · D. Rodriguez

23 · I. Almena

11 · A. Hoxha

99 · M. Orsic

14 · S. Prevljak

10 · L. Stojkovic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split

4-2-3-1

33 T. Silic

22 M. Acapandie

15 D. Maresic

14 R. Raci

32 S. Hrgovic

20 A. del Moral

8 K. Fayad

7 A. Sanyang

9 D. de Almeida

23 M. Soticek

11 M. Sego

Coach · Gonzalo Garcia

Substitutes

44 · D. Stipica

99 · D. Fesyuk

5 · A. Van Hoorenbeeck

17 · D. Melnjak

6 · D. Hadzikadunic

3 · R. Gabric

77 · C. Martin

26 · A. Huram

18 · L. Dendoncker

19 · E. Brruti

16 · A. Sutalo

10 · M. Livaja

Dinamo Zagreb

4-3-3

24 D. Kotarski

13 P. Tabinas

36 S. Dominguez

26 S. McKenna

22 M. Perez Vinlof

80 L. Kacavenda

5 K. Kravtsov

8 M. Zajc

21 M. Lisica

9 D. Beljo

17 L. Ivanusec

Coach · Mario Kovacevic

Substitutes

44 · I. Filipovic

3 · B. Goda

25 · M. Valincic

6 · S. Radeljic

15 · N. Galesic

20 · R. Mudrazija

7 · D. Rodriguez

23 · I. Almena

11 · A. Hoxha

99 · M. Orsic

14 · S. Prevljak

10 · L. Stojkovic

Our number · dinamo zagreb winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make Dinamo Zagreb a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dinamo zagreb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HNK Hajduk Split win	34%	31%	+3
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Dinamo Zagreb win	39%	43%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
HNK Hajduk Split or draw	61%	57%	+4
HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet	23%	–	–
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 6.9 7.6 6.3 3.1 1 7.0 12.6 8.5 4.2 2 5.5 8.0 5.8 2.9 3 2.5 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HNK Hajduk Split down, Dinamo Zagreb across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 940 HNL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 2.15 goals a meeting; 7 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HNK Hajduk Split at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Zagreb away: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for HNK Hajduk Split, 1.47 for Dinamo Zagreb. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:40. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.15

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 20

~~Both scored~~8 of 20

~~Last meetings~~DIN 2–0 HNK · HNK 1–3 DIN · DIN 1–1 HNK · HNK 0–2 DIN

Form · last six in HNL

HNK HAJDUK SPLIT

WWWWWL2–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

DINAMO ZAGREB

WWDWLW4–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Zagreb	7	+8	16
2	HNK Hajduk Split	8	+8	16
3	NK Osijek	8	+6	16
4	NK Varazdin	8	+6	15
5	HNK Rijeka	7	+6	14
6	Istra 1961	8	+1	9
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	8	−5	7
8	NK Slaven Belupo	8	−9	7
9	Rudes	9	−13	7
10	HNK Gorica	9	−8	5