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HNK Gorica v Rudes

HNK Gorica

1–2Full time

Rudes

HNL · FRI 9 OCT · Stadion Radnik

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

HNK Gorica 1–2 Rudes HNK GORICA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HNK Gorica win~~60%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.100

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.056

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HNK Gorica win at 60%.
71′SUBSTITUTION · 45' HNK Gorica · On: Ante Erceg · Off: Patrik Mijic Corrected
71′⚽ GOAL · 48' HNK Gorica 0–2 Rudes · Junior Fernandes
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' HNK Gorica · On: ivan cvijanovic · Off: Goncalo Costa Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' HNK Gorica · On: Luka Vrzic · Off: Jakov Pranjić Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' HNK Gorica · On: Domagoj Pavičić · Off: Tom Lacoux Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rudes · On: Saad El Haddad · Off: Jurica Poldrugac Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rudes · On: Lenny Ilecic · Off: Junior Fernandes Corrected
71′SECOND HALF HNK Gorica 0–2 Rudes
72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Ivan Đoric · Rudes
83′⚽ GOAL · 80' HNK Gorica 1–2 Rudes · Bruno Bogojević
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rudes · On: Luka Popovic · Off: Xavier Cabrita Fernandes Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' HNK Gorica · On: bartol kardum · Off: frigan juraj Corrected
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Rudes · On: filip taraba · Off: bruno unusic Corrected
FTFULL TIME HNK Gorica 1–2 Rudes
FTHNK Gorica 1–2 Rudes · HNK Gorica win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

HNK Gorica win60%

Draw23%

Rudes win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Stadion Radnik

Referee · Patrik Kolaric

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

HNK Gorica

4-2-3-1

1 R. Josipovic

2 F. Braut

32 J. Filipovic

15 D. Stevanovic

5 G. Costa

6 T. Lacoux

66 J. Frigan

25 B. Bogojevic

10 F. Brodic

8 J. Pranjic

9 P. Mijic

Coach · Mario Carevic

Substitutes

30 · D. Zarkov

71 · D. Matijas

45 · S. Peric

34 · I. Cvijanovic

21 · H. I. Moustapha

24 · D. Pavicic

4 · K. Custovic

7 · O. Bakic

50 · A. Erceg

18 · B. Kardum

20 · L. Vrzic

Rudes

3-4-2-1

95 L. Rogic

42 M. Zebic

4 V. Celjak

29 S. Bralic

2 B. Unusic

24 I. Djoric

37 N. Skoko

27 Felipe Curcio

28 Xavi

11 J. Poldrugac

78 J. Fernandes

Coach · Alen Peternac

Substitutes

1 · F. Holjevac

44 · F. Taraba

26 · I. Zutic

8 · L. Popovic

10 · V. Seitz

34 · K. Lovric

14 · T. Kolega

7 · L. Ilecic

35 · J. Bralic

30 · M. Slogar

33 · J. Pejic

88 · S. El Haddad

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

HNK Gorica

4-2-3-1

1 R. Josipovic

2 F. Braut

32 J. Filipovic

15 D. Stevanovic

5 G. Costa

6 T. Lacoux

66 J. Frigan

25 B. Bogojevic

10 F. Brodic

8 J. Pranjic

9 P. Mijic

Coach · Mario Carevic

Substitutes

30 · D. Zarkov

71 · D. Matijas

45 · S. Peric

34 · I. Cvijanovic

21 · H. I. Moustapha

24 · D. Pavicic

4 · K. Custovic

7 · O. Bakic

50 · A. Erceg

18 · B. Kardum

20 · L. Vrzic

Rudes

3-4-2-1

95 L. Rogic

42 M. Zebic

4 V. Celjak

29 S. Bralic

2 B. Unusic

24 I. Djoric

37 N. Skoko

27 Felipe Curcio

28 Xavi

11 J. Poldrugac

78 J. Fernandes

Coach · Alen Peternac

Substitutes

1 · F. Holjevac

44 · F. Taraba

26 · I. Zutic

8 · L. Popovic

10 · V. Seitz

34 · K. Lovric

14 · T. Kolega

7 · L. Ilecic

35 · J. Bralic

30 · M. Slogar

33 · J. Pejic

88 · S. El Haddad

Our number · hnk gorica winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

60% The market58%

Us60%

~~Market~~58%

We make HNK Gorica a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HNK Gorica win	60%	58%	+2
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Rudes win	17%	18%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
HNK Gorica or draw	83%	82%	+1
HNK Gorica clean sheet	40%	–	–
Rudes clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.9 4.6 2.6 1 10.3 11.0 4.7 2 10.7 9.6 4.4 3 6.9 6.1 2.8 4 3.4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HNK Gorica down, Rudes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 939 HNL matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HNK Gorica at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Rudes away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for HNK Gorica, 0.92 for Rudes. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 16:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HNK 2–1 RUD · RUD 2–1 HNK · HNK 3–0 RUD · RUD 0–2 HNK

Form · last six in HNL

HNK GORICA

LLDLDW1–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

RUDES

LWLLLD0–4 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Zagreb	7	+8	16
2	HNK Hajduk Split	8	+8	16
3	NK Osijek	8	+6	16
4	NK Varazdin	8	+6	15
5	HNK Rijeka	7	+6	14
6	Istra 1961	8	+1	9
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	8	−5	7
8	NK Slaven Belupo	8	−9	7
9	HNK Gorica	8	−7	5
10	Rudes	8	−14	4