HNK Gorica v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb prediction · HNL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

HNK Gorica 0–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNK GORICA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HNK Gorica win~~38%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.747

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.763

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HNK Gorica win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF HNK Gorica v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2′Much as we predicted: HNK Gorica was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was HNK Gorica win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME HNK Gorica 0–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
45′SECOND HALF HNK Gorica 0–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: dominik thaqi · Off: Fran Karačić
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' HNK Gorica win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–49–24
57′We said HNK Gorica at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–50–24
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' HNK Gorica · On: ivan cvijanovic · Off: Bruno Bogojević
61′We said HNK Gorica at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–22
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Marcel Lorber · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: matija subotic · Off: Marcel Lorber
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' HNK Gorica · On: Luka Vrzic · Off: Goncalo Costa
70′We said HNK Gorica at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' HNK Gorica win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Mirko Marić · Off: Lovre kulusic Corrected
77′We said HNK Gorica at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Lovre kulusic · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' HNK Gorica · On: Ognjen Bakic · Off: frigan juraj
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' HNK Gorica · On: Patrik Mijic · Off: Ante Erceg
83′We said HNK Gorica at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' HNK Gorica win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Dušan Stevanović · HNK Gorica
90′We said HNK Gorica at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · On: Marijan Čabraja · Off: Dušan Vuković
93′Full time, 0–0. We called HNK Gorica at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME HNK Gorica 0–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
FTHNK Gorica 0–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · HNK Gorica win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HNK Gorica are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HNK Gorica 38%, draw 29%, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 33%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on HNK Gorica v NK Lokomotiva ZagrebBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

HNK Gorica win38%

Draw29%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Radnik

RefereeIvan Vukancic

Line-ups

HNK Gorica

3-4-3

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HNK Gorica

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · HNL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	10	−4	10
10	HNK Gorica	10	−8	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

HNK Gorica

3-4-3

1 R. Josipović

2 F. Braut

4 J. Filipović

15 D. Stevanović

25 B. Bogojević

6 T. Lacoux

66 Juraj Frigan

5 Gonçalo Costa

8 J. Pranjić

50 A. Erceg

24 D. Pavičić

Coach · M. Carević

Substitutes

26 · Keenan Nino Carole

10 · F. Brodić

34 · I. Cvijanović

18 · B. Kardum

36 · Ante Kavelj

71 · D. Matijaš

9 · P. Mijić

21 · H. Moustapha

45 · S. Perić

30 · D. Žarkov

20 · L. Vrzić

7 · O. Bakić

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

4-2-3-1

12 J. Posavec

13 F. Karačić

2 J. Gurlica

4 T. Triantafyllou

20 K. Čabrajić

8 I. Katić

6 F. Fetai

7 D. Vuković

14 M. Lorber

9 L. Belcar

11 Lovre Kulušić

Coach · N. Jelavić

Substitutes

32 · L. Savatović

18 · E. Atabaev

24 · M. Marić

26 · M. Dardan

25 · P. Smiljanic

16 · Kayke

19 · M. Subotić

15 · Dominik Thaqi

29 · J. Vasilj

5 · M. Čabraja

28 · N. Đurković

Our number · hnk gorica winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market38%

Us38%

~~Market~~38%

We make HNK Gorica a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HNK Gorica v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb~~1.26 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~10 v 7

~~The market · HNK Gorica win~~38% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HNK Gorica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HNK Gorica win	38%	38%	0
Draw	29%	29%	0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win	33%	33%	0
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
HNK Gorica or draw	67%	67%	0
HNK Gorica clean sheet	32%	–	–
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.1 9.4 6.0 2.4 1 10.2 13.9 7.5 2.9 2 7.0 8.1 4.7 3 3.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HNK Gorica down, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 949 HNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HNK Gorica at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for HNK Gorica, 1.16 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NKL 3–1 HNK · HNK 0–2 NKL · NKL 3–0 HNK · HNK 4–1 NKL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 31 Aug

HNK GORICA

DLDWLD0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB

LLDLLW0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	10	+10	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	10	+6	18
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
6	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	10	−4	10
8	NK Slaven Belupo	10	−10	10
9	Rudes	10	−14	7
10	HNK Gorica	10	−8	6