Dinamo Zagreb v HNK Rijeka prediction · HNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dinamo ZagrebDrawHNK Rijeka

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dinamo Zagreb 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Zagreb 57%, draw 24%, HNK Rijeka 19%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Zagreb v HNK RijekaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb win57%

Draw24%

HNK Rijeka win19%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Maksimir

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Zagreb

HNK Rijeka

5Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 20 Oct · the Croatian Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinamo zagreb winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market56%

Us57%

~~Market~~56%

We make Dinamo Zagreb a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Zagreb v HNK Rijeka~~1.91 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 17~~2 v 5

~~The market · Dinamo Zagreb win~~56% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Zagreb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Zagreb win	57%	56%	+1
Draw	24%	25%	−1
HNK Rijeka win	19%	20%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Dinamo Zagreb or draw	81%	80%	+1
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet	37%	–	–
HNK Rijeka clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.5 4.7 2.8 1 9.5 11.2 5.2 2 9.8 9.8 4.9 3 6.3 6.2 3.1 4 3.0 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Zagreb down, HNK Rijeka across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 951 HNL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Zagreb at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). HNK Rijeka away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Dinamo Zagreb, 1.00 for HNK Rijeka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DIN 2–0 HNK · DIN 2–2 HNK · HNK 0–0 DIN · DIN 2–1 HNK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in HNL this season · since 29 Aug

DINAMO ZAGREB

DWLWLW2–2 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 5–1

HNK RIJEKA

DWDWLW0–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HNK Hajduk Split	10	+10	22
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	11	+5	18
4	NK Osijek	10	+4	17
5	HNK Rijeka	9	+4	17
6	NK Slaven Belupo	11	−9	13
7	Istra 1961	10	+1	12
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	−4	11
9	HNK Gorica	11	−8	7
10	Rudes	10	−14	7