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Vukovar v Hrvace

Vukovar

1–0Full time

Hrvace

First NL · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Gradski vrt

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Vukovar 1–0 Hrvace VUKOVAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Vukovar win~~65%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.181

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.419

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vukovar win at 65%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Vukovar 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
2′KICK-OFF Vukovar v Hrvace
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Vukovar 1–0 Hrvace
37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Vukovar
41′A goal for Vukovar on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Vukovar win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
45′HALF-TIME Vukovar 1–0 Hrvace
49′SECOND HALF Vukovar 1–0 Hrvace
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Vukovar
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Hrvace
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Vukovar
85′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Vukovar
85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Vukovar
90′🟥 RED CARD · 91' Hrvace
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Hrvace
FTFULL TIME Vukovar 1–0 Hrvace
FTVukovar 1–0 Hrvace · Vukovar win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vukovar win65%

Draw20%

Hrvace win15%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Stadion Gradski vrt

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vukovar

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Hrvojevic

11 S. Barnes

2 L. Brodersen

4 D. Pavlek

5 K. Vrbanac

8 Ugosinho

21 G. Pineda

18 N. Pajvancic

6 D. Stranput

25 Rai

9 F. Petkovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · N. Beros

22 · N. Grubisic

27 · L. Baric

15 · N. Zlatunic

20 · S. Dias Semedo

23 · D. Vinkovic

30 · D. Jergovic

12 · I. Francesevic

– · A. Kramaric

Hrvace

Formation not confirmed

12 T. Tomic

4 K. Bungic

19 J. Mijic

8 V. Medic

15 J. Vrcic

29 I. Ikic

11 E. Vehabovic

27 B. Jemo

– A. Pokrajcic

5 F. Milovic

20 L. Lucic

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · J. Vrdoljak

24 · O. Diallo

6 · B. Modric

21 · D. Ljubic

7 · J. Vuckovic

9 · R. Peros

2 · N. Djolonga

25 · M. Zebic

1 · L. Bakota

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vukovar

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Hrvojevic

11 S. Barnes

2 L. Brodersen

4 D. Pavlek

5 K. Vrbanac

8 Ugosinho

21 G. Pineda

18 N. Pajvancic

6 D. Stranput

25 Rai

9 F. Petkovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · N. Beros

22 · N. Grubisic

27 · L. Baric

15 · N. Zlatunic

20 · S. Dias Semedo

23 · D. Vinkovic

30 · D. Jergovic

12 · I. Francesevic

– · A. Kramaric

Hrvace

Formation not confirmed

12 T. Tomic

4 K. Bungic

19 J. Mijic

8 V. Medic

15 J. Vrcic

29 I. Ikic

11 E. Vehabovic

27 B. Jemo

– A. Pokrajcic

5 F. Milovic

20 L. Lucic

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · J. Vrdoljak

24 · O. Diallo

6 · B. Modric

21 · D. Ljubic

7 · J. Vuckovic

9 · R. Peros

2 · N. Djolonga

25 · M. Zebic

1 · L. Bakota

Our number · vukovar winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

65% The market47%

Us65%

~~Market~~47%

We make Vukovar a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vukovar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. The market has gone from 53% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vukovar win	65%	47%	+18
Draw	20%	27%	−8
Hrvace win	15%	25%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	56%	49%	+6
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	72%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	34%	29%	+4
Vukovar or draw	85%	75%	+10
Vukovar clean sheet	43%	–	–
Hrvace clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 5.3 5.0 2.0 1 11.5 9.2 4.1 2 11.4 9.6 4.1 3 7.8 6.6 2.8 4 4.1 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vukovar down, Hrvace across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,096 First NL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Vukovar at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hrvace away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Vukovar, 0.85 for Hrvace. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First NL

VUKOVAR

WLDWLL2–0 · 2–6 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 0–1

HRVACE

LLLDWW1–4 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jadran LP	8	+5	15
2	Mladost Ždralovi	8	+1	14
3	Croatia Zmijavci	7	+5	13
4	HNK Cibalia	8	+2	13
5	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	8	+1	13
6	Segesta Sisak	7	+1	11
7	Karlovac 1919	8	−1	11
8	Sesvete	8	+1	10
9	Dinamo Zagreb U21	7	0	9
10	Dugopolje	7	0	9
11	Dubrava Zagreb	7	−1	8
12	Opatija	8	−2	8
13	Orijent 1919	7	−2	8
14	Vukovar	7	−3	8
15	Kustosija	8	−2	7
16	Hrvace	7	−5	7