Vukovar v Bsk Bijelo Brdo prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Vukovar 0–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo VUKOVAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vukovar win~~57%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.035

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.760

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vukovar win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vukovar 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–19
1′KICK-OFF Vukovar v Bsk Bijelo Brdo
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Vukovar win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
40′We said Vukovar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–37–18
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
42′We said Vukovar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
45′HALF-TIME Vukovar 0–0 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
46′SECOND HALF Vukovar 0–0 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
52′We said Vukovar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–16
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Vukovar win 42%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 38–47–16
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Vukovar win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
60′We said Vukovar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–51–15
63′Bsk Bijelo Brdo score on 63′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–25–68
63′We said Vukovar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–25–68
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Vukovar 0–1 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Vukovar win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Bsk Bijelo Brdo win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 54%)
66′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Bsk Bijelo Brdo · On: F. Svraka · Off: P. Korov
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Vukovar · On: R. Gonzalez · Off: Rai
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Vukovar · On: G. Pineda · Off: N. Beros
70′We said Vukovar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–74
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Vukovar
77′Bsk Bijelo Brdo find the net on 77′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
77′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Vukovar 0–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
FTFULL TIME Vukovar 0–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
FTVukovar 0–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · Vukovar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vukovar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vukovar 57%, draw 24%, Bsk Bijelo Brdo 19%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Vukovar v Bsk Bijelo BrdoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vukovar win57%

Draw24%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:45

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Gradski vrt

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vukovar

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · First NL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	9	+1	14
14	Vukovar	9	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vukovar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:13 · locked at kick-off

57% The market42%

Us57%

~~Market~~42%

We make Vukovar a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vukovar v Bsk Bijelo Brdo~~1.64 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~14 v 5

~~The market · Vukovar win~~42% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vukovar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vukovar win	57%	42%	+15
Draw	24%	29%	−5
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win	19%	29%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	44%	45%	−1
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	25%	−2
Vukovar or draw	81%	71%	+10
Vukovar clean sheet	45%	–	–
Bsk Bijelo Brdo clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 8.4 7.6 2.9 1 14.7 10.8 4.6 2 11.5 9.1 3.7 3 6.3 5.0 2.0 4 2.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vukovar down, Bsk Bijelo Brdo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 First NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vukovar at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bsk Bijelo Brdo away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Vukovar, 0.81 for Bsk Bijelo Brdo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VUK 2–0 BSK · BSK 1–1 VUK · VUK 1–1 BSK · VUK 2–2 BSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept

VUKOVAR

DWLLWL1–1 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

BSK BIJELO BRDO

WWLWLD1–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	9	+8	19
2	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
3	HNK Cibalia	10	0	16
4	Segesta Sisak	9	+2	14
5	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	9	+1	14
6	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
7	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
8	Kustosija	10	0	13
9	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	0	12
10	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12
11	Sesvete	10	0	11
12	Opatija	9	−1	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	−2	11
14	Vukovar	9	−3	11
15	Dugopolje	9	−1	10
16	Hrvace	10	−7	8