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Sesvete v Jadran LP

Sesvete

1–1Full time

Jadran LP

First NL · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 16:34

Sesvete 1–1 Jadran LP SESVETE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sesvete win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.822

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sesvete win44%

Draw26%

Jadran LP win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sesvete

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Ziger

13 P. Kostelac

4 T. Agic

6 M. Gasparac

18 A. Utrobicic

8 M. Barnabas

19 D. Ravlic

11 I. Pejic

20 R. Brajkovic

14 R. Masala

9 S. Akanni

Coach · Mario Rac

Substitutes

26 · T. Suskovic

23 · T. Gorupec

25 · A. Huskic

29 · P. Petkovski

7 · M. Kanceljak

17 · A. Cacic

21 · V. Jakovljevic

27 · F. Severec

28 · L. Olic

Jadran LP

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Kesina

23 P. Zrnic

6 D. Karacic

11 L. Matanovic

19 T. Herceg

2 L. Miletic

5 R. Silic

77 L. Petrovic

10 M. Maric

16 I. Milicevic

9 N. Maric

Coach · –

Substitutes

80 · J. Bartulic

4 · K. Taslak

20 · N. Rodin

74 · E. Spahic

7 · A. Peric

24 · S. Erceg

47 · R. Zilic

14 · K. Granic

17 · K. Antunovic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sesvete

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Ziger

13 P. Kostelac

4 T. Agic

6 M. Gasparac

18 A. Utrobicic

8 M. Barnabas

19 D. Ravlic

11 I. Pejic

20 R. Brajkovic

14 R. Masala

9 S. Akanni

Coach · Mario Rac

Substitutes

26 · T. Suskovic

23 · T. Gorupec

25 · A. Huskic

29 · P. Petkovski

7 · M. Kanceljak

17 · A. Cacic

21 · V. Jakovljevic

27 · F. Severec

28 · L. Olic

Jadran LP

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Kesina

23 P. Zrnic

6 D. Karacic

11 L. Matanovic

19 T. Herceg

2 L. Miletic

5 R. Silic

77 L. Petrovic

10 M. Maric

16 I. Milicevic

9 N. Maric

Coach · –

Substitutes

80 · J. Bartulic

4 · K. Taslak

20 · N. Rodin

74 · E. Spahic

7 · A. Peric

24 · S. Erceg

47 · R. Zilic

14 · K. Granic

17 · K. Antunovic

Our number · sesvete winPublished 9 Oct 13:32

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Sesvete a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sesvete win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sesvete win	44%	41%	+3
Draw	26%	30%	−3
Jadran LP win	29%	29%	0
Over 2.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	68%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	24%	−2
Sesvete or draw	71%	71%	0
Sesvete clean sheet	36%	–	–
Jadran LP clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 9.1 10.2 5.0 1 13.1 12.3 6.5 2.3 2 8.4 8.5 4.3 3 3.8 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sesvete down, Jadran LP across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,092 First NL matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sesvete at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Jadran LP away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Sesvete, 1.03 for Jadran LP. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First NL

SESVETE

LLWWLL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

JADRAN LP

WDLWWW4–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jadran LP	7	+5	14
2	Croatia Zmijavci	7	+5	13
3	HNK Cibalia	7	+3	13
4	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	7	+2	13
5	Segesta Sisak	7	+1	11
6	Mladost Ždralovi	7	0	11
7	Sesvete	7	+1	9
8	Dinamo Zagreb U21	7	0	9
9	Dugopolje	7	0	9
10	Dubrava Zagreb	7	−1	8
11	Karlovac 1919	7	−2	8
12	Orijent 1919	7	−2	8
13	Vukovar	7	−3	8
14	Opatija	7	−2	7
15	Hrvace	7	−5	7
16	Kustosija	7	−2	6