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Model 1.2

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Sesvete v Hrvace

Sesvete
0–0Full time
Hrvace

First NL · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32
Sesvete 0–0 Hrvace SESVETE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sesvete win54%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.910
The market’s Brier score0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sesvete win at 54%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Sesvete was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sesvete v Hrvace
  4. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Sesvete
  5. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Hrvace
  6. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Sesvete win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
  7. 41′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–38–19
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Sesvete 0–0 Hrvace
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Sesvete 0–0 Hrvace
  10. 48′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
  11. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Sesvete
  12. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Sesvete win 41%)
  13. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Sesvete
  14. 55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 41–40–19
  15. 57′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–17
  16. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Sesvete win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
  17. 65′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
  18. 71′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–12
  19. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Sesvete win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
  20. 76′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
  21. 81′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–79–7
  22. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Sesvete win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
  23. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Hrvace
  24. 84′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
  25. 91′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
  26. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Sesvete win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  27. FTFULL TIME Sesvete 0–0 Hrvace
  28. FTSesvete 0–0 Hrvace · Sesvete win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sesvete are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sesvete 54%, draw 24%, Hrvace 22%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Sesvete v HrvaceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sesvete win54%
Draw24%
Hrvace win22%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sesvete

Hrvace

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · First NL

Last match: 17 Oct · First NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Sesvete9010
16Hrvace9−77

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sesvete winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
54% The market49%
Us54%
Market49%

We make Sesvete a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sesvete v Hrvace1.57 – 0.87
Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 10 v 713 v 16
The market · Sesvete win49% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 13:39
Our probability · Sesvete win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sesvete win54%49%+5
Draw24%28%−4
Hrvace win22%23%−1
Over 2.5 goals44%44%0
Both teams to score45%48%−3
Over 1.5 goals69%68%+1
Over 3.5 goals23%24%−1
Sesvete or draw78%77%+1
Sesvete clean sheet42%––
Hrvace clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%
0123450 8.5 8.2 3.3 1 14.2 11.3 5.1 2 10.7 9.2 4.0 3 5.6 4.8 2.1 4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sesvete down, Hrvace across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.40
Over 2.55 of 5
Both scored4 of 5
Last meetingsHRV 4–2 SES · HRV 1–2 SES · SES 2–2 HRV · HRV 2–4 SES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept

SESVETE

WWLLDL2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

HRVACE

LDWWLL1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Croatia Zmijavci9+819
2Jadran LP9+516
3Segesta Sisak9+214
4Bsk Bijelo Brdo9+114
5Karlovac 19199014
6Mladost Ždralovi9−114
7HNK Cibalia9−113
8Dinamo Zagreb U219+112
9Orijent 19199−112
10Opatija9−111
11Dubrava Zagreb9−111
12Vukovar9−311
13Sesvete9010
14Dugopolje9−110
15Kustosija9−110
16Hrvace9−77

The competition's standings before kick-off.