

Sesvete v Hrvace
Sesvete
HrvaceFirst NL · FRI 23 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Sesvete win at 54%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Sesvete was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
- 1′KICK-OFF Sesvete v Hrvace
- 28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Sesvete
- 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Hrvace
- 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Sesvete win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
- 41′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–38–19
- 45′HALF-TIME Sesvete 0–0 Hrvace
- 45′SECOND HALF Sesvete 0–0 Hrvace
- 48′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
- 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Sesvete
- 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Sesvete win 41%)
- 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Sesvete
- 55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 41–40–19
- 57′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–17
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Sesvete win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
- 65′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
- 71′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–12
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Sesvete win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
- 76′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–71–10
- 81′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–79–7
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Sesvete win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
- 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Hrvace
- 84′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
- 91′We said Sesvete at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
- 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Sesvete win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
- FTFULL TIME Sesvete 0–0 Hrvace
- FTSesvete 0–0 Hrvace · Sesvete win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Sesvete are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Sesvete 54%, draw 24%, Hrvace 22%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 45%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Sesvete win54%
Hrvace win22%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 10
Match timeline
All events
SesveteMIN
HrvaceEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sesvete
Hrvace
Last match: 16 Oct · First NL
Last match: 17 Oct · First NL
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Sesvete a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sesvete win | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | −4 |
| Hrvace win | 22% | 23% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| Sesvete or draw | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Sesvete clean sheet | 42% | – | – |
| Hrvace clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept
SESVETE
HRVACE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia Zmijavci | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 2 | Jadran LP | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 3 | Segesta Sisak | 9 | +2 | 14 |
| 4 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 9 | +1 | 14 |
| 5 | Karlovac 1919 | 9 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 | Mladost Ždralovi | 9 | −1 | 14 |
| 7 | HNK Cibalia | 9 | −1 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Orijent 1919 | 9 | −1 | 12 |
| 10 | Opatija | 9 | −1 | 11 |
| 11 | Dubrava Zagreb | 9 | −1 | 11 |
| 12 | Vukovar | 9 | −3 | 11 |
| 13 | Sesvete | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Dugopolje | 9 | −1 | 10 |
| 15 | Kustosija | 9 | −1 | 10 |
| 16 | Hrvace | 9 | −7 | 7 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Croatia Zmijavci
Jadran LP
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Karlovac 1919
Mladost Ždralovi
HNK Cibalia
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Orijent 1919
Opatija
Dubrava Zagreb
Vukovar
Dugopolje
Kustosija