Segesta Sisak v Dinamo Zagreb U21 prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Segesta Sisak 1–3 Dinamo Zagreb U21 SEGESTA SISAK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Segesta Sisak win~~47%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.795

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.945

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Segesta Sisak win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Segesta Sisak 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
1′KICK-OFF Segesta Sisak v Dinamo Zagreb U21
2′Little has changed for our model: Segesta Sisak 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Segesta Sisak
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Segesta Sisak 0–1 Dinamo Zagreb U21
17′10′ and it is 0–1: Dinamo Zagreb U21 have scored. 0–1 · 19–24–56
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 19% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Dinamo Zagreb U21 win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Segesta Sisak win 19%)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Segesta Sisak win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Dinamo Zagreb U21 win 28%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 19% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Dinamo Zagreb U21 win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Segesta Sisak win 19%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Segesta Sisak win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Dinamo Zagreb U21 win 28%)
20′10′ and it is 0–1: Dinamo Zagreb U21 have scored. 0–1 · 19–25–57
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Segesta Sisak win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Dinamo Zagreb U21 win 28%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 19% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Dinamo Zagreb U21 win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Segesta Sisak win 19%)
34′We said Segesta Sisak at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–60
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 15% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 19% now
35′We said Segesta Sisak at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–60
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 19% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 15% now
45′We said Segesta Sisak at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 11–25–64
45′HALF-TIME Segesta Sisak 0–1 Dinamo Zagreb U21
46′SECOND HALF Segesta Sisak 0–1 Dinamo Zagreb U21
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Dinamo Zagreb U21
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 11% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Dinamo Zagreb U21 win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Segesta Sisak win 11%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Segesta Sisak win: 47% at kick-off, 11% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Dinamo Zagreb U21 win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Segesta Sisak win 11%)
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Segesta Sisak 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb U21
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Segesta Sisak 1–2 Dinamo Zagreb U21
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Segesta Sisak
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Dinamo Zagreb U21
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Segesta Sisak 1–3 Dinamo Zagreb U21
90′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Dinamo Zagreb U21
FTFULL TIME Segesta Sisak 1–3 Dinamo Zagreb U21
FTSegesta Sisak 1–3 Dinamo Zagreb U21 · Segesta Sisak win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Segesta Sisak win47%

Draw25%

Dinamo Zagreb U21 win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

VenueGradski stadion Sisak

Line-ups

Segesta Sisak

Dinamo Zagreb U21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Segesta Sisak

Dinamo Zagreb U21

14Days since last match16

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Segesta Sisak	7	+1	11
11	Dinamo Zagreb U21	7	0	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Segesta Sisak

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Djilas

6 K. Bilic

5 E. Chardey

13 V. Dalic

3 N. Godec

8 I. Jajalo

10 L. Kozic

14 P. Brlek

9 S. Sanogo

22 T. Majic

33 T. Kukoc

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. Herceg

4 · I. Bjelivuk

15 · M. Rados

7 · B. Kunert

17 · S. Ivanisevic Dvornik

23 · L. Ivancic

11 · M. Brkic

24 · V. Gec

25 · D. Spehar

Dinamo Zagreb U21

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Znuderl

2 N. Mikic

32 I. Paunovic

4 B. Orlic

13 P. Zaja

31 J. Benkotic

30 F. Taylor

10 S. Sunta

34 E. Molchan

9 L. Perkovic

16 N. Nsoki

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · P. Loncarevic

18 · S. Begovic

44 · F. Kasumovic

14 · J. Brundic

5 · L. Ultra

8 · T. Bakovic

7 · M. Cutuk

19 · A. A. Makhfaoui

26 · G. Sivalec

Our number · segesta sisak winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

47% The market52%

Us47%

~~Market~~52%

We make Segesta Sisak a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · segesta sisak win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Segesta Sisak win	47%	52%	−5
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Dinamo Zagreb U21 win	28%	22%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	73%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−3
Segesta Sisak or draw	72%	78%	−6
Segesta Sisak clean sheet	33%	–	–
Dinamo Zagreb U21 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.1 8.6 4.5 1 11.5 11.7 6.7 2.5 2 8.3 9.0 5.0 3 4.2 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Segesta Sisak down, Dinamo Zagreb U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,098 First NL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Segesta Sisak at home: 1.50 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Dinamo Zagreb U21 away: 1.80 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Segesta Sisak, 1.11 for Dinamo Zagreb U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First NL

SEGESTA SISAK

LDLWWD0–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

DINAMO ZAGREB U21

LWWLLW0–3 · 6–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jadran LP	8	+5	15
2	Mladost Ždralovi	8	+1	14
3	Croatia Zmijavci	7	+5	13
4	HNK Cibalia	8	+2	13
5	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	8	+1	13
6	Segesta Sisak	7	+1	11
7	Karlovac 1919	8	−1	11
8	Orijent 1919	8	−1	11
9	Vukovar	8	−2	11
10	Sesvete	8	+1	10
11	Dinamo Zagreb U21	7	0	9
12	Dugopolje	7	0	9
13	Opatija	8	−2	8
14	Dubrava Zagreb	8	−2	8
15	Kustosija	8	−2	7
16	Hrvace	8	−6	7