Segesta Sisak v Croatia Zmijavci prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Segesta Sisak 2–0 Croatia Zmijavci SEGESTA SISAK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Segesta Sisak win~~54%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.323

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.480

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Segesta Sisak win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Segesta Sisak 54% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–23
1′KICK-OFF Segesta Sisak v Croatia Zmijavci
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Segesta Sisak
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Segesta Sisak
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Croatia Zmijavci
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Segesta Sisak win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
42′We said Segesta Sisak at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–37–21
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Croatia Zmijavci
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′HALF-TIME Segesta Sisak 1–0 Croatia Zmijavci
46′SECOND HALF Segesta Sisak 1–0 Croatia Zmijavci
47′Segesta Sisak find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
47′We said Segesta Sisak at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Segesta Sisak 1–0 Croatia Zmijavci
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Segesta Sisak win: 54% at kick-off, 80% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Segesta Sisak
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Croatia Zmijavci
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Segesta Sisak win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
67′A goal for Segesta Sisak on 67′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′We said Segesta Sisak at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Segesta Sisak 2–0 Croatia Zmijavci
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Segesta Sisak win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Segesta Sisak · On: T. Kukoc · Off: D. Spehar
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Croatia Zmijavci · On: B. Grgic · Off: G. Gadze
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Segesta Sisak · On: E. Chardey · Off: N. Godec
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Segesta Sisak · On: S. Ivanisevic Dvornik · Off: S. Sanogo
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Croatia Zmijavci · On: P. Ugwuodo · Off: K. Nazor
80′We said Segesta Sisak at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Segesta Sisak 2–0 Croatia Zmijavci
FTSegesta Sisak 2–0 Croatia Zmijavci · Segesta Sisak win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Segesta Sisak are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Segesta Sisak 54%, draw 23%, Croatia Zmijavci 23%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Segesta Sisak v Croatia ZmijavciBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Segesta Sisak win54%

Draw23%

Croatia Zmijavci win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueGradski stadion Sisak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Segesta Sisak

Croatia Zmijavci

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · First NL

Last match: 18 Oct · First NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · segesta sisak winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

54% The market43%

Us54%

~~Market~~43%

We make Segesta Sisak a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Segesta Sisak v Croatia Zmijavci~~1.66 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 19~~4 v 1

~~The market · Segesta Sisak win~~43% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Segesta Sisak win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Segesta Sisak win	54%	43%	+11
Draw	23%	28%	−5
Croatia Zmijavci win	23%	28%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	44%	+5
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	68%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	24%	+3
Segesta Sisak or draw	77%	72%	+5
Segesta Sisak clean sheet	38%	–	–
Croatia Zmijavci clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 6.9 7.6 3.5 1 12.4 11.0 5.6 2 9.8 9.4 4.6 3 5.4 5.2 2.5 4 2.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Segesta Sisak down, Croatia Zmijavci across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 First NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Segesta Sisak at home: 1.40 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Croatia Zmijavci away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Segesta Sisak, 0.98 for Croatia Zmijavci. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept

SEGESTA SISAK

LWWDLW0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–1

CROATIA ZMIJAVCI

DLLWWW1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	9	+8	19
2	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
3	HNK Cibalia	10	0	16
4	Segesta Sisak	9	+2	14
5	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	9	+1	14
6	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
7	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
8	Kustosija	10	0	13
9	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	0	12
10	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12
11	Sesvete	10	0	11
12	Opatija	9	−1	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	−2	11
14	Vukovar	9	−3	11
15	Dugopolje	9	−1	10
16	Hrvace	10	−7	8