Opatija v Sesvete prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 17:31

Opatija 1–0 Sesvete OPATIJA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Opatija win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.485

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.524

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Opatija win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Opatija 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–28
1′KICK-OFF Opatija v Sesvete
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Opatija
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Sesvete
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Opatija win 35%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Opatija win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
45′SECOND HALF Opatija 0–0 Sesvete
46′HALF-TIME Opatija 0–0 Sesvete
48′We said Opatija at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–47–22
54′We said Opatija at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–21
61′We said Opatija at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–16–3
61′Opatija find the net on 61′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–16–3
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Opatija 1–0 Sesvete
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Opatija win: 43% at kick-off, 82% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Opatija win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Opatija win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
69′We said Opatija at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Opatija
78′We said Opatija at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Sesvete
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Opatija win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Opatija
85′We said Opatija at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′1–0 at the end. Our 43% on Opatija comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Opatija 1–0 Sesvete
FTOpatija 1–0 Sesvete · Opatija win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Opatija are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Opatija 43%, draw 28%, Sesvete 29%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Opatija v SesveteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Opatija win43%

Draw28%

Sesvete win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStadion Kantrida

Line-ups

Opatija

Sesvete

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Opatija

Sesvete

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · First NL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sesvete	8	+1	10
13	Opatija	8	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Opatija

Formation not confirmed

32 J. Jurcevic

4 D. Mulac

13 R. Bagadur

3 L. Brlek

2 D. Usalj

22 A. Milanovic

8 I. Horvat

17 L. Murica

7 D. Djokovic

10 G. Groznica

24 B. Bogolin

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · D. Nwolokor

21 · V. Havolli

19 · N. Macolic

11 · M. Miskulin

5 · D. Buzuk

16 · M. Mrsic

18 · A. Camara

14 · B. Bilobrk

Sesvete

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Ziger

30 T. Agic

6 M. Gasparac

2 V. Kruslin

18 A. Utrobicic

15 P. Antolkovic

8 M. Barnabas

11 I. Pejic

19 D. Ravlic

21 V. Jakovljevic

9 S. Akanni

Coach · Mario Rac

Substitutes

26 · L. Pervan

4 · J. Olaleke

29 · P. Petkovski

13 · P. Kostelac

25 · A. Huskic

7 · M. Kanceljak

17 · A. Cacic

20 · R. Brajkovic

28 · L. Olic

Our number · opatija winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Opatija a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Opatija v Sesvete~~1.21 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~13 v 11

~~The market · Opatija win~~41% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Opatija win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Opatija win	43%	41%	+2
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Sesvete win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	36%	42%	−6
Both teams to score	41%	50%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	62%	67%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	24%	−7
Opatija or draw	71%	70%	+1
Opatija clean sheet	40%	–	–
Sesvete clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 11.6 11.5 5.1 1 14.9 12.6 6.0 2 8.7 7.9 3.6 3 3.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Opatija down, Sesvete across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,100 First NL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Opatija at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sesvete away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Opatija, 0.92 for Sesvete. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SES 1–0 OPA · SES 0–0 OPA · OPA 2–1 SES · OPA 1–0 SES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept

OPATIJA

WLLLWD1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

SESVETE

LWWLLD0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	8	+6	16
2	Jadran LP	8	+5	15
3	Mladost Ždralovi	8	+1	14
4	HNK Cibalia	8	+2	13
5	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	8	+1	13
6	Dinamo Zagreb U21	8	+2	12
7	Karlovac 1919	8	−1	11
8	Segesta Sisak	8	−1	11
9	Orijent 1919	8	−1	11
10	Vukovar	8	−2	11
11	Sesvete	8	+1	10
12	Dugopolje	8	−1	9
13	Opatija	8	−2	8
14	Dubrava Zagreb	8	−2	8
15	Kustosija	8	−2	7
16	Hrvace	8	−6	7