Opatija v Mladost Ždralovi prediction · First NL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OpatijaDrawMladost Ždralovi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Opatija 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Opatija are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Opatija 45%, draw 27%, Mladost Ždralovi 27%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Opatija v Mladost ŽdraloviBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Opatija win45%

Draw27%

Mladost Ždralovi win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Kantrida

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Opatija

Mladost Ždralovi

6Days since last match12

Last match: 24 Oct · First NL

Last match: 18 Oct · First NL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
12	Opatija	9	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · opatija winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Opatija a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Opatija v Mladost Ždralovi~~1.28 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~12 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Opatija win	45%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Mladost Ždralovi win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Opatija or draw	73%	–	–
Opatija clean sheet	40%	–	–
Mladost Ždralovi clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 10.8 10.8 4.7 1 14.8 12.3 5.9 2 9.1 8.2 3.7 3 3.9 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Opatija down, Mladost Ždralovi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 First NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Opatija at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mladost Ždralovi away: 0.75 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Opatija, 0.91 for Mladost Ždralovi. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~OPA 1–0 MLA · MLA 3–1 OPA · MLA 1–1 OPA · OPA 1–1 MLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept

OPATIJA

LLWDWW2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

MLADOST ŽDRALOVI

DWLLWL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	9	+8	19
2	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	10	+3	17
3	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
4	HNK Cibalia	10	0	16
5	Segesta Sisak	9	+2	14
6	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
7	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
8	Kustosija	10	0	13
9	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	0	12
10	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12
11	Sesvete	10	0	11
12	Opatija	9	−1	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	−2	11
14	Vukovar	10	−5	11
15	Dugopolje	9	−1	10
16	Hrvace	10	−7	8