Home › Football › First NL › Opatija v Kustosija

Opatija v Kustosija

Opatija

1–1Full time

Kustosija

First NL · FRI 9 OCT · Stadion Kantrida

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:04

Opatija 1–1 Kustosija OPATIJA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Opatija win~~49%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.811

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.783

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Opatija win49%

Draw28%

Kustosija win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Stadion Kantrida

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Opatija

Formation not confirmed

32 J. Jurcevic

23 S. Suke

13 R. Bagadur

3 L. Brlek

2 D. Usalj

8 I. Horvat

10 G. Groznica

20 R. Domjanic

7 D. Djokovic

4 D. Mulac

24 B. Bogolin

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · D. Nwolokor

5 · D. Buzuk

11 · M. Miskulin

19 · N. Macolic

21 · V. Havolli

22 · A. Milanovic

16 · M. Mrsic

17 · L. Murica

18 · A. Camara

Kustosija

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Prslja

51 J. Nichols

4 L. Zeqiraj

25 S. Sopic

3 F. Markanovic

88 N. Sunjic

17 M. Zalazar

8 L. Jurak

13 M. Vuckovic

19 P. O. Nwachukwu

7 D. Zabec

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · A. Rajic

5 · T. Kulenovic

6 · L. Dukic

15 · J. Bartulovic

23 · D. Begonja

55 · I. Graf

18 · T. Krizmanic

20 · D. Pregelj

9 · M. Gashi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Opatija

Formation not confirmed

32 J. Jurcevic

23 S. Suke

13 R. Bagadur

3 L. Brlek

2 D. Usalj

8 I. Horvat

10 G. Groznica

20 R. Domjanic

7 D. Djokovic

4 D. Mulac

24 B. Bogolin

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · D. Nwolokor

5 · D. Buzuk

11 · M. Miskulin

19 · N. Macolic

21 · V. Havolli

22 · A. Milanovic

16 · M. Mrsic

17 · L. Murica

18 · A. Camara

Kustosija

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Prslja

51 J. Nichols

4 L. Zeqiraj

25 S. Sopic

3 F. Markanovic

88 N. Sunjic

17 M. Zalazar

8 L. Jurak

13 M. Vuckovic

19 P. O. Nwachukwu

7 D. Zabec

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · A. Rajic

5 · T. Kulenovic

6 · L. Dukic

15 · J. Bartulovic

23 · D. Begonja

55 · I. Graf

18 · T. Krizmanic

20 · D. Pregelj

9 · M. Gashi

Our number · opatija winPublished 9 Oct 14:32

49% The market42%

Us49%

~~Market~~42%

We make Opatija a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · opatija win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Opatija win	49%	42%	+7
Draw	28%	28%	0
Kustosija win	23%	30%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	33%	47%	−14
Both teams to score	37%	53%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	60%	71%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	15%	27%	−12
Opatija or draw	77%	70%	+7
Opatija clean sheet	47%	–	–
Kustosija clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.1%

0123450 12.9 10.4 3.8 1 17.1 11.9 4.7 2 10.6 7.8 3.0 3 4.6 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Opatija down, Kustosija across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,092 First NL matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Opatija at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kustosija away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Opatija, 0.75 for Kustosija. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OPA 2–1 KUS · KUS 0–0 OPA

Form · last six in First NL

OPATIJA

LWLLLW1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0

KUSTOSIJA

LDLDWL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jadran LP	7	+5	14
2	Croatia Zmijavci	7	+5	13
3	HNK Cibalia	7	+3	13
4	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	7	+2	13
5	Segesta Sisak	7	+1	11
6	Mladost Ždralovi	7	0	11
7	Sesvete	7	+1	9
8	Dinamo Zagreb U21	7	0	9
9	Dugopolje	7	0	9
10	Dubrava Zagreb	7	−1	8
11	Karlovac 1919	7	−2	8
12	Orijent 1919	7	−2	8
13	Vukovar	7	−3	8
14	Opatija	7	−2	7
15	Hrvace	7	−5	7
16	Kustosija	7	−2	6