Mladost Ždralovi v Jadran LP prediction · First NL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mladost ŽdraloviDrawJadran LP

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mladost Ždralovi 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mladost Ždralovi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mladost Ždralovi 43%, draw 25%, Jadran LP 32%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Mladost Ždralovi v Jadran LPBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Mladost Ždralovi win43%

Draw25%

Jadran LP win32%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mladost Ždralovi

Jadran LP

8Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · First NL

Last match: 17 Oct · First NL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
7	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mladost ždralovi winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Mladost Ždralovi a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mladost Ždralovi v Jadran LP~~1.41 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 16~~7 v 3

~~The market · Mladost Ždralovi win~~41% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mladost Ždralovi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mladost Ždralovi win	43%	41%	+2
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Jadran LP win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	46%	+1
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Mladost Ždralovi or draw	68%	69%	−1
Mladost Ždralovi clean sheet	31%	–	–
Jadran LP clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.3 9.5 5.2 2.1 1 11.2 11.8 7.2 2.9 2 7.5 8.6 5.0 3 3.6 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mladost Ždralovi down, Jadran LP across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 First NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.62 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mladost Ždralovi at home: 1.20 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). Jadran LP away: 2.00 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Mladost Ždralovi, 1.17 for Jadran LP. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MLA 0–0 JAD · JAD 0–2 MLA · MLA 2–2 JAD · JAD 1–0 MLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept

MLADOST ŽDRALOVI

DWLLWL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–3

JADRAN LP

LWWWDD0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	9	+8	19
2	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	10	+3	17
3	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
4	HNK Cibalia	10	0	16
5	Segesta Sisak	9	+2	14
6	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
7	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
8	Kustosija	10	0	13
9	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	0	12
10	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12
11	Sesvete	10	0	11
12	Opatija	9	−1	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	−2	11
14	Vukovar	10	−5	11
15	Dugopolje	9	−1	10
16	Hrvace	10	−7	8