Karlovac 1919 v Orijent 1919 prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Karlovac 1919 0–2 Orijent 1919 KARLOVAC 1919 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karlovac 1919 win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.744

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.837

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karlovac 1919 win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Karlovac 1919 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Karlovac 1919 v Orijent 1919
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Karlovac 1919
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Orijent 1919
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Karlovac 1919 win 37%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Karlovac 1919
45′SECOND HALF Karlovac 1919 0–1 Orijent 1919
46′We said Karlovac 1919 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–24–65
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–65
46′Orijent 1919 score on 45′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–24–65
46′HALF-TIME Karlovac 1919 0–1 Orijent 1919
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Karlovac 1919 0–1 Orijent 1919
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Karlovac 1919 win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Orijent 1919 win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 40%)
49′We said Karlovac 1919 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
56′We said Karlovac 1919 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Karlovac 1919 0–2 Orijent 1919
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Karlovac 1919 win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
57′Orijent 1919 find the net on 57′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
93′0–2 at the end. Our 44% on Karlovac 1919 misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Karlovac 1919 0–2 Orijent 1919
FTKarlovac 1919 0–2 Orijent 1919 · Karlovac 1919 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karlovac 1919 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karlovac 1919 44%, draw 25%, Orijent 1919 30%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Karlovac 1919 v Orijent 1919Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Karlovac 1919 win44%

Draw25%

Orijent 1919 win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Branko Cavlovic-Cavlek

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karlovac 1919

Orijent 1919

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the Croatian Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · First NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
10	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karlovac 1919 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Karlovac 1919 a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karlovac 1919 v Orijent 1919~~1.43 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 12~~6 v 10

~~The market · Karlovac 1919 win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karlovac 1919 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karlovac 1919 win	44%	46%	−2
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Orijent 1919 win	30%	26%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	47%	45%	+2
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	69%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	25%	0
Karlovac 1919 or draw	70%	74%	−4
Karlovac 1919 clean sheet	33%	–	–
Orijent 1919 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.4 9.4 5.0 1 11.7 11.8 7.0 2.6 2 7.9 8.7 4.9 3 3.8 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karlovac 1919 down, Orijent 1919 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 First NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karlovac 1919 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Orijent 1919 away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Karlovac 1919, 1.13 for Orijent 1919. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ORI 1–0 KAR · KAR 0–3 ORI · ORI 1–1 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 6 Sept

KARLOVAC 1919

WLLDWW3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

ORIJENT 1919

DLWLWD1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	9	+8	19
2	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
3	HNK Cibalia	10	0	16
4	Segesta Sisak	9	+2	14
5	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	9	+1	14
6	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
7	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
8	Kustosija	10	0	13
9	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	0	12
10	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12
11	Sesvete	10	0	11
12	Opatija	9	−1	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	−2	11
14	Vukovar	9	−3	11
15	Dugopolje	9	−1	10
16	Hrvace	10	−7	8