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Karlovac 1919 v Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Karlovac 1919

3–2Full time

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

First NL · FRI 9 OCT · Stadion Branko Cavlovic-Cavlek

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Karlovac 1919 3–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo KARLOVAC 1919 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karlovac 1919 win~~43%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.487

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.636

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karlovac 1919 win at 43%.
68′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
68′⚽ GOAL · 60' Karlovac 1919 0–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
68′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
68′SECOND HALF Karlovac 1919 0–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Karlovac 1919
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Karlovac 1919
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Karlovac 1919
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Karlovac 1919 1–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · D. Resetar
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Karlovac 1919 1–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Karlovac 1919 2–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · D. Resetar
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Karlovac 1919 2–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
89′⚽ GOAL · 87' Karlovac 1919 2–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
89′⚽ GOAL · 87' Karlovac 1919 2–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · M. Tadic
90′⚽ GOAL · 87' Karlovac 1919 2–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · M. Tadic
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Karlovac 1919 3–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · M. Tadic
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Karlovac 1919 3–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
93′⚽ GOAL · 42' Karlovac 1919 3–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · D. Resetar
93′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
93′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Karlovac 1919 · On: D. Scira · Off: Bett
93′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Karlovac 1919 · On: M. Pervan · Off: L. Kapulica
93′🟨 YELLOW · 53' R. Retyi · Bsk Bijelo Brdo
93′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bsk Bijelo Brdo · On: M. Blazevic · Off: R. Tochukwu
93′⚽ GOAL · 60' Karlovac 1919 3–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · D. Resetar
93′🟨 YELLOW · 64' P. Korov · Bsk Bijelo Brdo
93′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Karlovac 1919
93′🟨 YELLOW · 77' M. Blazevic · Bsk Bijelo Brdo
93′🟨 YELLOW · 78' D. Scira · Karlovac 1919
93′🟨 YELLOW · 80' I. Lepinjica · Karlovac 1919
93′⚽ GOAL · 84' Karlovac 1919 3–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · M. Tadic
93′🟨 YELLOW · 86' B. Zupan · Bsk Bijelo Brdo
93′⚽ GOAL · 87' Karlovac 1919 3–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · M. Tadic
93′⚽ GOAL · 92' Karlovac 1919 3–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
FTFULL TIME Karlovac 1919 3–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo
FTKarlovac 1919 3–2 Bsk Bijelo Brdo · Karlovac 1919 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Karlovac 1919 win43%

Draw27%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Stadion Branko Cavlovic-Cavlek

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Karlovac 1919

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Bulat

3 F. Zilinski

4 G. Stepinac

6 M. Stipic

7 I. Ribar

14 A. Buneta

18 M. Sop

23 L. Kapulica

27 I. Lepinjica

33 Bett

36 M. Tadic

Coach · Igor Pamic

Substitutes

1 · M. Kostopec

8 · G. Paracki

11 · M. Gaspar

19 · A. Bubnjar

20 · N. Ocvirek

22 · M. Pervan

24 · P. Raguz

32 · V. Skrbin

80 · D. Scira

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Kovacic

5 R. Grubisic

28 B. Zupan

27 A. Benic

24 C. Ihejiofor

13 Z. Jakovljevic

10 F. Hrs

16 R. Tochukwu

19 R. Retyi

7 P. Korov

22 D. Resetar

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · J. Dizdar

2 · N. Bilic

8 · M. Blazevic

14 · F. Svraka

20 · F. Drga

21 · I. Matas

11 · I. Lozic

26 · L. Nemet

29 · A. Sainovic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Karlovac 1919

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Bulat

3 F. Zilinski

4 G. Stepinac

6 M. Stipic

7 I. Ribar

14 A. Buneta

18 M. Sop

23 L. Kapulica

27 I. Lepinjica

33 Bett

36 M. Tadic

Coach · Igor Pamic

Substitutes

1 · M. Kostopec

8 · G. Paracki

11 · M. Gaspar

19 · A. Bubnjar

20 · N. Ocvirek

22 · M. Pervan

24 · P. Raguz

32 · V. Skrbin

80 · D. Scira

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Kovacic

5 R. Grubisic

28 B. Zupan

27 A. Benic

24 C. Ihejiofor

13 Z. Jakovljevic

10 F. Hrs

16 R. Tochukwu

19 R. Retyi

7 P. Korov

22 D. Resetar

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · J. Dizdar

2 · N. Bilic

8 · M. Blazevic

14 · F. Svraka

20 · F. Drga

21 · I. Matas

11 · I. Lozic

26 · L. Nemet

29 · A. Sainovic

Our number · karlovac 1919 winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

43% The market35%

Us43%

~~Market~~35%

We make Karlovac 1919 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · karlovac 1919 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karlovac 1919 win	43%	35%	+8
Draw	27%	31%	−4
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win	30%	34%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	40%	40%	−1
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	66%	65%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	21%	−1
Karlovac 1919 or draw	70%	66%	+5
Karlovac 1919 clean sheet	37%	–	–
Bsk Bijelo Brdo clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 10.0 10.8 5.2 1 13.6 12.4 6.5 2.2 2 8.3 8.2 4.1 3 3.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karlovac 1919 down, Bsk Bijelo Brdo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,092 First NL matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karlovac 1919 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bsk Bijelo Brdo away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Karlovac 1919, 1.00 for Bsk Bijelo Brdo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KAR 1–0 BSK · KAR 1–0 BSK · BSK 0–2 KAR

Form · last six in First NL

KARLOVAC 1919

WDWLLD2–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

BSK BIJELO BRDO

DLWWLW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jadran LP	7	+5	14
2	Croatia Zmijavci	7	+5	13
3	HNK Cibalia	7	+3	13
4	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	7	+2	13
5	Segesta Sisak	7	+1	11
6	Mladost Ždralovi	7	0	11
7	Sesvete	7	+1	9
8	Dinamo Zagreb U21	7	0	9
9	Dugopolje	7	0	9
10	Dubrava Zagreb	7	−1	8
11	Karlovac 1919	7	−2	8
12	Orijent 1919	7	−2	8
13	Vukovar	7	−3	8
14	Opatija	7	−2	7
15	Hrvace	7	−5	7
16	Kustosija	7	−2	6