Jadran LP v Dugopolje

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Jadran LP win at 57%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Jadran LP 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
3. 1′KICK-OFF Jadran LP v Dugopolje
4. 17′A goal for Jadran LP on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
5. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Jadran LP 1–0 Dugopolje
6. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Jadran LP win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
7. 18′We said Jadran LP at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
8. 20′Dugopolje score on 20′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 52–28–20
9. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Jadran LP 1–1 Dugopolje
10. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Jadran LP win: 57% at kick-off, 52% now
11. 30′Jadran LP find the net on 30′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–15–5
12. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Jadran LP 2–1 Dugopolje
13. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Jadran LP win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
14. 31′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 80–15–5
15. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Dugopolje
16. 45′HALF-TIME Jadran LP 2–1 Dugopolje
17. 46′SECOND HALF Jadran LP 2–1 Dugopolje
18. 47′A goal for Jadran LP on 47′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–0
19. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Jadran LP 3–1 Dugopolje
20. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Jadran LP win: 57% at kick-off, 96% now
21. 48′We said Jadran LP at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–0
22. 48′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
23. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Jadran LP win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
24. 50′Dugopolje score on 50′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 82–15–3
25. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Jadran LP 3–2 Dugopolje
26. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Jadran LP win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
27. 51′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 82–15–3
28. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Jadran LP · On: R. Silic · Off: R. Zilic
29. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Jadran LP
30. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Jadran LP
31. 62′We said Jadran LP at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
32. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Dugopolje
33. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Jadran LP win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
34. 70′Dugopolje find the net on 70′. 3–3. 3–3 · 27–60–13
35. 70′We said Jadran LP at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 3–3 · 27–60–13
36. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Jadran LP
37. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Jadran LP 3–3 Dugopolje
38. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Jadran LP win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
39. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Jadran LP win 27%)
40. 71′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 26–61–13
41. 74′We said Jadran LP at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 3–3 · 23–66–11
42. 78′We said Jadran LP at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 3–3 · 19–72–9
43. 78′Jadran LP are down to ten from 78′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–3 · 19–72–9
44. 78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Jadran LP
45. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Jadran LP win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
46. 82′We said Jadran LP at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 3–3 · 13–80–7
47. 82′A goal for Dugopolje on 82′ — 3–4. 3–4 · 1–12–87
48. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dugopolje · On: A. Balic · Off: L. Peric
49. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Jadran LP 3–4 Dugopolje
50. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Jadran LP win: 57% at kick-off, 1% now
51. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Dugopolje win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
52. 83′We said Jadran LP at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 3–4 · 1–11–88
53. 83′7 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 1–11–88
54. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jadran LP · On: A. Radonic · Off: L. Petrovic
55. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 59' N. Maric · Jadran LP
56. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Jadran LP
57. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Dugopolje
58. 91′Jadran LP score on 90′ to make it 4–4. 4–4 · 5–93–2
59. 91′We said Jadran LP at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 4–4 · 5–93–2
60. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Jadran LP 4–4 Dugopolje
61. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Dugopolje win 2%)
62. 92′That is 8, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 4–94–2
63. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Dugopolje
64. FTFULL TIME Jadran LP 4–4 Dugopolje
65. FTJadran LP 4–4 Dugopolje · Jadran LP win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.