Hrvace v Kustosija prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Hrvace 1–2 Kustosija HRVACE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hrvace win~~44%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.777

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.706

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hrvace win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hrvace was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Hrvace v Kustosija
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Kustosija
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Kustosija
36′Much as we predicted: Hrvace was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–39–25
37′Hrvace find the net on 36′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
37′We published Hrvace at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Hrvace 1–0 Kustosija
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Hrvace win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Hrvace
45′HALF-TIME Hrvace 1–0 Kustosija
46′SECOND HALF Hrvace 1–0 Kustosija
51′A goal for Kustosija on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–47–22
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Hrvace 1–1 Kustosija
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Hrvace win: 44% at kick-off, 31% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Hrvace win 31%)
52′We said Hrvace at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–48–22
54′Kustosija score on 54′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–23–70
54′We said Hrvace at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–23–70
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Hrvace 1–2 Kustosija
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Hrvace win: 44% at kick-off, 7% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Kustosija win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 23%)
55′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–23–71
64′We said Hrvace at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–75
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Hrvace
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Hrvace win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Kustosija
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Kustosija
FTFULL TIME Hrvace 1–2 Kustosija
FTHrvace 1–2 Kustosija · Hrvace win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hrvace are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hrvace 44%, draw 27%, Kustosija 29%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Hrvace v KustosijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hrvace win44%

Draw27%

Kustosija win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueGradski stadion Hrvace

Line-ups

Hrvace

Kustosija

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hrvace

Kustosija

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · First NL

Last match: 9 Oct · First NL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Kustosija	8	−2	7
16	Hrvace	8	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hrvace

Formation not confirmed

12 T. Tomic

2 N. Djolonga

4 K. Bungic

5 F. Milovic

20 L. Lucic

17 A. Pokrajcic

8 V. Medic

29 I. Ikic

11 E. Vehabovic

7 J. Vrcic

27 B. Jemo

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Bakota

9 · R. Peros

13 · A. Balic

18 · M. Domancic

19 · L. Curkovic

21 · D. Ljubic

23 · J. Vrdoljak

24 · J. Vuckovic

25 · B. Modric

Kustosija

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Rajic

51 J. Nichols

4 L. Zeqiraj

25 S. Sopic

3 F. Markanovic

88 N. Sunjic

17 M. Zalazar

18 T. Krizmanic

13 M. Vuckovic

19 P. O. Nwachukwu

7 D. Zabec

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Prslja

5 · T. Kulenovic

6 · L. Dukic

9 · M. Gashi

15 · J. Bartulovic

16 · R. Petrosyan

20 · D. Pregelj

23 · D. Begonja

55 · I. Graf

Our number · hrvace winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market39%

Us44%

~~Market~~39%

We make Hrvace a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hrvace v Kustosija~~1.28 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~16 v 15

~~The market · Hrvace win~~39% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hrvace win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hrvace win	44%	39%	+5
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Kustosija win	29%	32%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	39%	43%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	23%	−4
Hrvace or draw	71%	68%	+3
Hrvace clean sheet	39%	–	–
Kustosija clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 10.4 11.0 5.0 1 14.2 12.2 6.1 2.0 2 8.6 8.1 3.9 3 3.8 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hrvace down, Kustosija across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,102 First NL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hrvace at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kustosija away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Hrvace, 0.96 for Kustosija. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KUS 4–2 HRV · HRV 1–1 KUS · HRV 1–3 KUS · KUS 3–1 HRV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept

HRVACE

LLDWWL0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1

KUSTOSIJA

DLDWLD0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	8	+6	16
2	Jadran LP	8	+5	15
3	Mladost Ždralovi	8	+1	14
4	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
5	HNK Cibalia	8	+2	13
6	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	8	+1	13
7	Dinamo Zagreb U21	9	+1	12
8	Segesta Sisak	8	−1	11
9	Opatija	9	−1	11
10	Orijent 1919	8	−1	11
11	Vukovar	8	−2	11
12	Sesvete	9	0	10
13	Dugopolje	8	−1	9
14	Dubrava Zagreb	8	−2	8
15	Kustosija	8	−2	7
16	Hrvace	8	−6	7