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HNK Cibalia v Segesta Sisak

HNK Cibalia
1–4Full time
Segesta Sisak

First NL · SAT 17 OCT · Stadion HNK Cibalia

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
HNK Cibalia 1–4 Segesta Sisak HNK CIBALIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said HNK Cibalia win51%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.888
The market’s Brier score0.940

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said HNK Cibalia win at 51%.
  2. 22′Little has changed for our model: HNK Cibalia 51% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–30–24
  3. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' HNK Cibalia
  4. 29′Segesta Sisak find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–26–55
  5. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' HNK Cibalia 0–1 Segesta Sisak
  6. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' HNK Cibalia win: 51% at kick-off, 18% now
  7. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Segesta Sisak win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was HNK Cibalia win 18%)
  8. 30′We said HNK Cibalia at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–26–56
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 18–26–56
  10. 41′We said HNK Cibalia at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–59
  11. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Segesta Sisak
  12. 45′HALF-TIME HNK Cibalia 0–1 Segesta Sisak
  13. 46′SECOND HALF HNK Cibalia 0–1 Segesta Sisak
  14. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' HNK Cibalia win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
  15. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' HNK Cibalia
  16. 55′We said HNK Cibalia at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
  17. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' HNK Cibalia
  18. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Segesta Sisak
  19. 69′We said HNK Cibalia at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–74
  20. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' HNK Cibalia
  21. 74′A goal for Segesta Sisak on 74′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
  22. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' HNK Cibalia 0–2 Segesta Sisak
  23. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' HNK Cibalia win: 51% at kick-off, under 1% now
  24. 77′HNK Cibalia score on 77′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–16–82
  25. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' HNK Cibalia 1–2 Segesta Sisak
  26. 78′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–15–83
  27. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Segesta Sisak
  28. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 58' HNK Cibalia · On: P. Misic · Off: M. Medo
  29. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Segesta Sisak
  30. 87′Segesta Sisak find the net on 86′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  31. 87′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  32. 87′⚽ GOAL · 86' HNK Cibalia 1–3 Segesta Sisak
  33. 90′A goal for Segesta Sisak on 90′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  34. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' HNK Cibalia 1–4 Segesta Sisak
  35. 91′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  36. FTFULL TIME HNK Cibalia 1–4 Segesta Sisak
  37. FTHNK Cibalia 1–4 Segesta Sisak · HNK Cibalia win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HNK Cibalia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HNK Cibalia 51%, draw 24%, Segesta Sisak 25%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on HNK Cibalia v Segesta SisakBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

HNK Cibalia win51%
Draw24%
Segesta Sisak win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStadion HNK Cibalia

Line-ups

HNK Cibalia

Segesta Sisak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HNK Cibalia

Segesta Sisak

8Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · First NL

Last match: 11 Oct · First NL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5HNK Cibalia8+213
8Segesta Sisak8−111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

HNK Cibalia

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Marijanovic

21 D. Matic

20 D. Lagancic

6 Britto

5 P. Rubic

14 M. Hanuljak

13 L. Rajkovic

11 L. Bartolovic

19 M. Medo

7 G. Boban

9 D. Lukic

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · P. Katalinic

3 · F. Nekic

4 · R. Kelic

22 · M. Kresic

10 · P. Misic

17 · M. Marojevic

18 · M. Jerkic

28 · D. Bosnjak

27 · I. Markovic

Segesta Sisak

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Djilas

18 F. Mekic

6 K. Bilic

13 V. Dalic

3 N. Godec

8 I. Jajalo

10 L. Kozic

9 S. Sanogo

14 P. Brlek

25 D. Spehar

22 T. Majic

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. Herceg

4 · I. Bjelivuk

5 · E. Chardey

15 · M. Rados

33 · T. Kukoc

16 · N. Culina

23 · L. Ivancic

27 · I. Radosevic

17 · S. Ivanisevic Dvornik

Our number · hnk cibalia winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off
51% The market51%
Us51%
Market51%

We make HNK Cibalia a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · HNK Cibalia v Segesta Sisak1.59 – 1.01
Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 13 v 115 v 8
The market · HNK Cibalia win51% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 15:53
Our probability · HNK Cibalia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
HNK Cibalia win51%51%0
Draw24%27%−3
Segesta Sisak win25%22%+3
Over 2.5 goals48%49%−1
Both teams to score49%51%−2
Over 1.5 goals72%72%0
Over 3.5 goals26%28%−2
HNK Cibalia or draw75%78%−3
HNK Cibalia clean sheet37%––
Segesta Sisak clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%
0123450 7.1 8.1 3.8 1 12.4 11.2 5.9 2.0 2 9.4 9.3 4.7 3 5.0 4.9 2.5 4 2.0 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+HNK Cibalia down, Segesta Sisak across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept

HNK CIBALIA

DDDWWL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

SEGESTA SISAK

DLWWDL0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Croatia Zmijavci8+616
2Jadran LP8+515
3Mladost Ždralovi8+114
4Karlovac 19199014
5HNK Cibalia8+213
6Bsk Bijelo Brdo8+113
7Dinamo Zagreb U219+112
8Segesta Sisak8−111
9Opatija9−111
10Orijent 19198−111
11Vukovar8−211
12Sesvete9010
13Dugopolje8−19
14Dubrava Zagreb8−28
15Kustosija8−27
16Hrvace8−67

The competition's standings before kick-off.