Dugopolje v Opatija prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Dugopolje 1–2 Opatija DUGOPOLJE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dugopolje win~~40%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.674

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.860

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dugopolje win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dugopolje was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
1′KICK-OFF Dugopolje v Opatija
13′A goal for Dugopolje on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–21–12
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Dugopolje 1–0 Opatija
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Dugopolje win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
14′We published Dugopolje at 40%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–21–11
26′We published Dugopolje at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Dugopolje win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–9
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Dugopolje
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Opatija
45′HALF-TIME Dugopolje 1–0 Opatija
46′SECOND HALF Dugopolje 1–0 Opatija
50′We published Dugopolje at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
63′Opatija score on 63′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 24–56–21
63′We said Dugopolje at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–21
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Dugopolje 1–1 Opatija
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Dugopolje win: 40% at kick-off, 24% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Dugopolje win 79%)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Dugopolje win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
70′We said Dugopolje at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–17
75′Opatija find the net on 75′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
75′We said Dugopolje at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
75′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–14–84
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Dugopolje 1–2 Opatija
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Dugopolje win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Opatija win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 69%)
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Opatija
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Dugopolje win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Dugopolje 1–2 Opatija
FTDugopolje 1–2 Opatija · Dugopolje win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dugopolje are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dugopolje 40%, draw 27%, Opatija 33%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Dugopolje v OpatijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dugopolje win40%

Draw27%

Opatija win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Hrvatski Vitezovi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dugopolje

Opatija

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · First NL

Last match: 16 Oct · First NL

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Opatija	9	−1	11
15	Dugopolje	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dugopolje winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market47%

Us40%

~~Market~~47%

We make Dugopolje a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dugopolje v Opatija~~1.24 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~15 v 12

~~The market · Dugopolje win~~47% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dugopolje win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dugopolje win	40%	47%	−7
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Opatija win	33%	25%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Dugopolje or draw	67%	75%	−8
Dugopolje clean sheet	33%	–	–
Opatija clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 9.2 11.2 5.9 2.2 1 12.4 12.4 7.2 2.7 2 7.3 8.0 4.4 3 3.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dugopolje down, Opatija across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 First NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dugopolje at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Opatija away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Dugopolje, 1.11 for Opatija. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~OPA 3–0 DUG · DUG 1–1 OPA · OPA 0–1 DUG · DUG 1–4 OPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept

DUGOPOLJE

DLWLLD0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–4

OPATIJA

LLLWDW1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	9	+8	19
2	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
3	HNK Cibalia	10	0	16
4	Segesta Sisak	9	+2	14
5	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	9	+1	14
6	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
7	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
8	Kustosija	10	0	13
9	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	0	12
10	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12
11	Sesvete	10	0	11
12	Opatija	9	−1	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	−2	11
14	Vukovar	9	−3	11
15	Dugopolje	9	−1	10
16	Hrvace	10	−7	8