Dugopolje v Croatia Zmijavci prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Dugopolje 0–1 Croatia Zmijavci DUGOPOLJE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dugopolje win~~48%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.824

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.792

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dugopolje win at 48%.
0′Much as we predicted: Dugopolje was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–26
0′KICK-OFF Dugopolje v Croatia Zmijavci
4′Much as we predicted: Dugopolje was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
9′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Dugopolje
41′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Croatia Zmijavci
45′SECOND HALF Dugopolje 0–0 Croatia Zmijavci
47′SECOND HALF Dugopolje 0–0 Croatia Zmijavci
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Dugopolje 0–1 Croatia Zmijavci
53′⚽ GOAL · 54' Dugopolje 0–1 Croatia Zmijavci
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Dugopolje
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Dugopolje
FTFULL TIME Dugopolje 0–1 Croatia Zmijavci
FTDugopolje 0–1 Croatia Zmijavci · Dugopolje win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Dugopolje win48%

Draw25%

Croatia Zmijavci win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:45

VenueStadion Hrvatski Vitezovi

Line-ups

Dugopolje

Croatia Zmijavci

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dugopolje

Croatia Zmijavci

14Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Croatia Zmijavci	7	+5	13
12	Dugopolje	7	0	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dugopolje

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Buljan

22 M. Karabatic

25 H. Kozarac

23 L. Kuvacic

4 R. Kurtovic

10 A. Balic

21 A. Sokac

11 M. Caktas

20 J. Vukovic

19 B. Ghussein

7 B. Zdunic

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · P. Mijatovic

3 · A. Gagula

8 · A. Basic

14 · S. Marasovic

18 · D. Balic

24 · F. Shatri

28 · L. Peric

9 · A. Zivkovic

17 · S. Musura

Croatia Zmijavci

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Gudelj

2 R. Anthony

24 M. Matkovic

4 D. Condric

25 F. Milardovic

11 S. Kajtazi

7 G. Gadze

5 K. Nazor

22 T. Jukic-Peladic

19 P. Ugwuodo

20 V. Kanizaj

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Pelivan

23 · B. Grgic

26 · A. Ivkosic

6 · J. Iyendjock

10 · M. Sabic

18 · I. Ora

9 · B. Pernar

17 · A. Zuzul

16 · F. Sabic

Our number · dugopolje winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

48% The market43%

Us48%

~~Market~~43%

We make Dugopolje a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dugopolje win	48%	43%	+4
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Croatia Zmijavci win	27%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	43%	+3
Both teams to score	49%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	68%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	23%	+2
Dugopolje or draw	73%	72%	+1
Dugopolje clean sheet	36%	–	–
Croatia Zmijavci clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 7.8 8.8 4.4 1 12.4 11.8 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 9.0 4.7 3 4.4 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dugopolje down, Croatia Zmijavci across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,098 First NL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dugopolje at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Croatia Zmijavci away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Dugopolje, 1.04 for Croatia Zmijavci. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 14

~~Both scored~~7 of 14

~~Last meetings~~CRO 1–1 DUG · CRO 1–2 DUG · DUG 2–0 CRO · CRO 4–1 DUG

Form · last six in First NL

DUGOPOLJE

WDDLWL2–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–1

CROATIA ZMIJAVCI

WWDLLW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jadran LP	8	+5	15
2	Mladost Ždralovi	8	+1	14
3	Croatia Zmijavci	7	+5	13
4	HNK Cibalia	8	+2	13
5	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	8	+1	13
6	Segesta Sisak	7	+1	11
7	Karlovac 1919	8	−1	11
8	Orijent 1919	8	−1	11
9	Vukovar	8	−2	11
10	Sesvete	8	+1	10
11	Dinamo Zagreb U21	7	0	9
12	Dugopolje	7	0	9
13	Opatija	8	−2	8
14	Dubrava Zagreb	8	−2	8
15	Kustosija	8	−2	7
16	Hrvace	8	−6	7