Dubrava Zagreb v Sesvete prediction · First NL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dubrava ZagrebDrawSesvete

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dubrava Zagreb 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dubrava Zagreb are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dubrava Zagreb 39%, draw 27%, Sesvete 33%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Dubrava Zagreb v SesveteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Dubrava Zagreb win39%

Draw27%

Sesvete win33%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSRC Pescenica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dubrava Zagreb

Sesvete

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · First NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sesvete	10	0	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dubrava zagreb winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Dubrava Zagreb a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dubrava Zagreb v Sesvete~~1.19 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 11~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dubrava Zagreb win	39%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Sesvete win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Dubrava Zagreb or draw	67%	–	–
Dubrava Zagreb clean sheet	35%	–	–
Sesvete clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 10.1 11.8 6.0 2.2 1 13.0 12.6 7.0 2.5 2 7.4 7.8 4.1 3 2.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dubrava Zagreb down, Sesvete across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 First NL matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dubrava Zagreb at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sesvete away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Dubrava Zagreb, 1.07 for Sesvete. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUB 1–3 SES · SES 2–0 DUB · DUB 0–2 SES · SES 1–3 DUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 11 Sept

DUBRAVA ZAGREB

DWLLWL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2

SESVETE

WLLDLD2–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	9	+8	19
2	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	10	+3	17
3	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
4	HNK Cibalia	10	0	16
5	Segesta Sisak	9	+2	14
6	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
7	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
8	Kustosija	10	0	13
9	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	0	12
10	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12
11	Sesvete	10	0	11
12	Opatija	9	−1	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	−2	11
14	Vukovar	10	−5	11
15	Dugopolje	9	−1	10
16	Hrvace	10	−7	8