Dubrava Zagreb v Kustosija prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Dubrava Zagreb 1–2 Kustosija DUBRAVA ZAGREB WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dubrava Zagreb win~~44%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.785

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.592

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dubrava Zagreb win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dubrava Zagreb was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Dubrava Zagreb v Kustosija
5′We said Dubrava Zagreb at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–57
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Dubrava Zagreb 0–1 Kustosija
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Dubrava Zagreb win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Kustosija win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Dubrava Zagreb win 43%)
6′Kustosija find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–57
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Dubrava Zagreb 1–1 Kustosija
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Dubrava Zagreb win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Dubrava Zagreb win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Kustosija win 57%)
10′A goal for Dubrava Zagreb on 9′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 43–30–28
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Dubrava Zagreb
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Dubrava Zagreb win 38%)
41′We said Dubrava Zagreb at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–25–65
41′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 10–25–65
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Dubrava Zagreb 1–2 Kustosija
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Dubrava Zagreb win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Kustosija win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 41%)
42′Kustosija score on 41′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 10–25–65
45′We said Dubrava Zagreb at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
45′SECOND HALF Dubrava Zagreb 1–2 Kustosija
47′HALF-TIME Dubrava Zagreb 1–2 Kustosija
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Kustosija
63′We said Dubrava Zagreb at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Dubrava Zagreb win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Dubrava Zagreb
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Kustosija
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Kustosija
FTFULL TIME Dubrava Zagreb 1–2 Kustosija
FTDubrava Zagreb 1–2 Kustosija · Dubrava Zagreb win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dubrava Zagreb are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dubrava Zagreb 44%, draw 27%, Kustosija 28%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Dubrava Zagreb v KustosijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Dubrava Zagreb win44%

Draw27%

Kustosija win28%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueSRC Pescenica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dubrava Zagreb

Kustosija

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · First NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Dubrava Zagreb	9	−1	11
15	Kustosija	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dubrava zagreb winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

44% The market34%

Us44%

~~Market~~34%

We make Dubrava Zagreb a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dubrava Zagreb v Kustosija~~1.27 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~11 v 15

~~The market · Dubrava Zagreb win~~34% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dubrava Zagreb win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dubrava Zagreb win	44%	34%	+10
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Kustosija win	28%	37%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	38%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	25%	−7
Dubrava Zagreb or draw	72%	63%	+9
Dubrava Zagreb clean sheet	39%	–	–
Kustosija clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 10.7 10.9 4.9 1 14.4 12.3 6.1 2 8.7 8.1 3.8 3 3.8 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dubrava Zagreb down, Kustosija across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 First NL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dubrava Zagreb at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kustosija away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Dubrava Zagreb, 0.94 for Kustosija. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KUS 0–1 DUB · DUB 5–2 KUS · KUS 1–0 DUB · DUB 1–2 KUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 6 Sept

DUBRAVA ZAGREB

WDWLLW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–2

KUSTOSIJA

LDWLDW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	9	+8	19
2	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
3	Segesta Sisak	9	+2	14
4	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	9	+1	14
5	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
6	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
7	HNK Cibalia	9	−1	13
8	Dinamo Zagreb U21	9	+1	12
9	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12
10	Opatija	9	−1	11
11	Dubrava Zagreb	9	−1	11
12	Vukovar	9	−3	11
13	Sesvete	9	0	10
14	Dugopolje	9	−1	10
15	Kustosija	9	−1	10
16	Hrvace	9	−7	7