Dinamo Zagreb U21 v Karlovac 1919 prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 17:31

Dinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 Karlovac 1919 DINAMO ZAGREB U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Zagreb U21 win~~56%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.977

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.972

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Zagreb U21 win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Zagreb U21 was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Zagreb U21 v Karlovac 1919
33′Karlovac 1919 score on 33′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–27–52
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Dinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 Karlovac 1919
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Dinamo Zagreb U21 win: 56% at kick-off, 21% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Karlovac 1919 win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Dinamo Zagreb U21 win 21%)
34′We said Dinamo Zagreb U21 at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–27–52
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 21–27–52
38′We said Dinamo Zagreb U21 at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–53
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Karlovac 1919
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Dinamo Zagreb U21 win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 Karlovac 1919
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 Karlovac 1919
50′We said Dinamo Zagreb U21 at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–58
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Dinamo Zagreb U21
61′We said Dinamo Zagreb U21 at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Dinamo Zagreb U21 win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
74′We said Dinamo Zagreb U21 at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Dinamo Zagreb U21
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Karlovac 1919
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 Karlovac 1919
FTDinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 Karlovac 1919 · Dinamo Zagreb U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Zagreb U21 56%, draw 22%, Karlovac 1919 22%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Zagreb U21 v Karlovac 1919Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb U21 win56%

Draw22%

Karlovac 1919 win22%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStadion Ivan Laljak-Ivic

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb U21

Karlovac 1919

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Zagreb U21

Karlovac 1919

5Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · First NL

Last match: 9 Oct · First NL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Dinamo Zagreb U21	8	+2	12
7	Karlovac 1919	8	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb U21

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Znuderl

2 N. Mikic

13 P. Zaja

4 B. Orlic

32 I. Paunovic

5 L. Ultra

30 F. Taylor

10 S. Sunta

34 E. Molchan

9 L. Perkovic

16 N. Nsoki

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · P. Loncarevic

18 · S. Begovic

27 · S. Lovric

44 · F. Kasumovic

8 · T. Bakovic

14 · J. Brundic

7 · M. Cutuk

26 · G. Sivalec

77 · K. Zulfic

Karlovac 1919

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Bulat

7 I. Ribar

4 G. Stepinac

36 M. Tadic

3 F. Zilinski

18 M. Sop

6 M. Stipic

27 I. Lepinjica

11 M. Gaspar

23 L. Kapulica

10 M. Zuljevic

Coach · Igor Pamic

Substitutes

12 · M. Kostopec

5 · P. Braun

8 · G. Paracki

24 · P. Raguz

2 · D. Ropar

22 · M. Pervan

32 · V. Skrbin

20 · N. Ocvirek

80 · D. Scira

Our number · dinamo zagreb u21 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 15 Oct 04:43 · locked at kick-off

56% The market53%

Us56%

~~Market~~53%

We make Dinamo Zagreb U21 a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Zagreb U21 v Karlovac 1919~~1.87 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~6 v 7

~~The market · Dinamo Zagreb U21 win~~53% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Zagreb U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Zagreb U21 win	56%	53%	+3
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Karlovac 1919 win	22%	21%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	47%	+9
Both teams to score	55%	49%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	70%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	34%	27%	+7
Dinamo Zagreb U21 or draw	78%	79%	−1
Dinamo Zagreb U21 clean sheet	35%	–	–
Karlovac 1919 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.4%

0123450 5.1 6.1 3.0 1 10.4 10.1 5.6 2 9.2 9.7 5.1 3 5.8 6.1 3.2 4 2.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Zagreb U21 down, Karlovac 1919 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,100 First NL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Dinamo Zagreb U21 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Karlovac 1919 away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Dinamo Zagreb U21, 1.06 for Karlovac 1919. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept

DINAMO ZAGREB U21

WWLLWW6–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 3–1

KARLOVAC 1919

DWLLDW2–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	8	+6	16
2	Jadran LP	8	+5	15
3	Mladost Ždralovi	8	+1	14
4	HNK Cibalia	8	+2	13
5	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	8	+1	13
6	Dinamo Zagreb U21	8	+2	12
7	Karlovac 1919	8	−1	11
8	Segesta Sisak	8	−1	11
9	Orijent 1919	8	−1	11
10	Vukovar	8	−2	11
11	Sesvete	8	+1	10
12	Dugopolje	8	−1	9
13	Opatija	8	−2	8
14	Dubrava Zagreb	8	−2	8
15	Kustosija	8	−2	7
16	Hrvace	8	−6	7