Dinamo Zagreb U21 v HNK Cibalia prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Dinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 HNK Cibalia DINAMO ZAGREB U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Zagreb U21 win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.793

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Zagreb U21 win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Zagreb U21 was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Zagreb U21 v HNK Cibalia
17′PENALTY MISSED · 17' Dinamo Zagreb U21
41′HNK Cibalia score on 41′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–61
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Dinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 HNK Cibalia
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Dinamo Zagreb U21 win: 48% at kick-off, 13% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' HNK Cibalia win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Dinamo Zagreb U21 win 39%)
42′We said Dinamo Zagreb U21 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 HNK Cibalia
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 HNK Cibalia
54′We said Dinamo Zagreb U21 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Dinamo Zagreb U21 win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
69′We said Dinamo Zagreb U21 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' HNK Cibalia
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 HNK Cibalia
FTDinamo Zagreb U21 0–1 HNK Cibalia · Dinamo Zagreb U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Zagreb U21 48%, draw 24%, HNK Cibalia 29%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Zagreb U21 v HNK CibaliaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb U21 win48%

Draw24%

HNK Cibalia win29%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Ivan Laljak-Ivic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Zagreb U21

HNK Cibalia

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · First NL

Last match: 17 Oct · First NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	HNK Cibalia	9	−1	13
8	Dinamo Zagreb U21	9	+1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinamo zagreb u21 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:13 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Dinamo Zagreb U21 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Zagreb U21 v HNK Cibalia~~1.58 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~8 v 7

~~The market · Dinamo Zagreb U21 win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Zagreb U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Zagreb U21 win	48%	46%	+2
Draw	24%	28%	−4
HNK Cibalia win	29%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	49%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	28%	+1
Dinamo Zagreb U21 or draw	71%	73%	−2
Dinamo Zagreb U21 clean sheet	32%	–	–
HNK Cibalia clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.2 8.1 4.4 1 10.8 11.2 6.8 2.6 2 8.0 9.2 5.3 2.1 3 4.3 4.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Zagreb U21 down, HNK Cibalia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 First NL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Dinamo Zagreb U21 at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). HNK Cibalia away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Dinamo Zagreb U21, 1.16 for HNK Cibalia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 5 Sept

DINAMO ZAGREB U21

WLLWWL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–1

HNK CIBALIA

DDWWLL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	9	+8	19
2	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
3	Segesta Sisak	9	+2	14
4	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	9	+1	14
5	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
6	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
7	HNK Cibalia	9	−1	13
8	Dinamo Zagreb U21	9	+1	12
9	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12
10	Opatija	9	−1	11
11	Dubrava Zagreb	9	−1	11
12	Vukovar	9	−3	11
13	Sesvete	9	0	10
14	Dugopolje	9	−1	10
15	Kustosija	9	−1	10
16	Hrvace	9	−7	7