Croatia Zmijavci v Mladost Ždralovi prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Croatia Zmijavci 3–1 Mladost Ždralovi CROATIA ZMIJAVCI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Croatia Zmijavci win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.566

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.584

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Croatia Zmijavci win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Croatia Zmijavci was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Croatia Zmijavci v Mladost Ždralovi
9′We published Croatia Zmijavci at 39%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–21–12
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Croatia Zmijavci 1–0 Mladost Ždralovi
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Croatia Zmijavci win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
10′A goal for Croatia Zmijavci on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–12
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Mladost Ždralovi
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Croatia Zmijavci win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Mladost Ždralovi
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Mladost Ždralovi
29′We published Croatia Zmijavci at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–9
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Croatia Zmijavci
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Croatia Zmijavci
45′SECOND HALF Croatia Zmijavci 1–0 Mladost Ždralovi
46′HALF-TIME Croatia Zmijavci 1–0 Mladost Ždralovi
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Croatia Zmijavci
51′We published Croatia Zmijavci at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
59′We published Croatia Zmijavci at 39%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Croatia Zmijavci 2–0 Mladost Ždralovi
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Croatia Zmijavci win: 39% at kick-off, 96% now
60′Croatia Zmijavci score on 59′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
71′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Croatia Zmijavci · On: B. Grgic · Off: V. Kanizaj
71′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Croatia Zmijavci · On: P. Ugwuodo · Off: B. Pernar
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Croatia Zmijavci win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
82′We published Croatia Zmijavci at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′We published Croatia Zmijavci at 39%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
83′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 93–7–0
83′Mladost Ždralovi find the net on 83′. 2–1. 2–1 · 93–7–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Croatia Zmijavci 2–1 Mladost Ždralovi
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Croatia Zmijavci win: 39% at kick-off, 93% now
87′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Croatia Zmijavci 3–1 Mladost Ždralovi
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Croatia Zmijavci win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Croatia Zmijavci · On: I. Ora · Off: S. Kajtazi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Croatia Zmijavci · On: J. Iyendjock · Off: T. Jukic-Peladic
88′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Mladost Ždralovi · On: N. Mandic · Off: N. Stjepanovic Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Croatia Zmijavci · On: A. Zuzul · Off: G. Gadze
89′A goal for Croatia Zmijavci on 88′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′Full time, 3–1. We called Croatia Zmijavci at 39% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Croatia Zmijavci 3–1 Mladost Ždralovi
FTCroatia Zmijavci 3–1 Mladost Ždralovi · Croatia Zmijavci win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Croatia Zmijavci are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Croatia Zmijavci 39%, draw 27%, Mladost Ždralovi 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Croatia Zmijavci v Mladost ŽdraloviBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Croatia Zmijavci win39%

Draw27%

Mladost Ždralovi win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 9

Line-ups

Croatia Zmijavci

Mladost Ždralovi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Croatia Zmijavci

Mladost Ždralovi

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · First NL

Last match: 9 Oct · First NL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Croatia Zmijavci

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Pelivan

2 R. Anthony

24 M. Matkovic

4 D. Condric

3 D. Milisic

11 S. Kajtazi

7 G. Gadze

5 K. Nazor

22 T. Jukic-Peladic

9 B. Pernar

20 V. Kanizaj

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Gudelj

25 · F. Milardovic

26 · K. Penic

6 · J. Iyendjock

16 · F. Sabic

18 · I. Ora

23 · B. Grgic

17 · A. Zuzul

19 · P. Ugwuodo

Mladost Ždralovi

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Grahovac

21 M. Bozanovic

5 A. Azinovic

30 M. Nikolic

7 N. Stjepanovic

20 L. Fernandes

6 T. Brezina

27 B. K. Tyongi

13 J. Simetic

10 F. Ozobic

9 D. Pavkovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Misevic

4 · I. Bosnjak

14 · L. Gubijan

18 · P. Santalab

2 · R. Krapec

11 · N. Mandic

25 · M. Kresic

19 · L. Travaglia

Our number · croatia zmijavci winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Croatia Zmijavci a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Croatia Zmijavci v Mladost Ždralovi~~1.19 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~1 v 5

~~The market · Croatia Zmijavci win~~38% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Croatia Zmijavci win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Croatia Zmijavci win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	27%	31%	−4
Mladost Ždralovi win	34%	32%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	40%	40%	0
Both teams to score	45%	47%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	66%	65%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
Croatia Zmijavci or draw	66%	68%	−2
Croatia Zmijavci clean sheet	34%	–	–
Mladost Ždralovi clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 9.9 11.7 6.1 2.3 1 12.7 12.5 7.1 2.6 2 7.2 7.7 4.2 3 2.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Croatia Zmijavci down, Mladost Ždralovi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,107 First NL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Croatia Zmijavci at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mladost Ždralovi away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Croatia Zmijavci, 1.09 for Mladost Ždralovi. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept

CROATIA ZMIJAVCI

WDLLWW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

MLADOST ŽDRALOVI

WDWLLW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	8	+6	16
2	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
3	Segesta Sisak	9	+2	14
4	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	9	+1	14
5	Mladost Ždralovi	8	+1	14
6	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
7	HNK Cibalia	9	−1	13
8	Dinamo Zagreb U21	9	+1	12
9	Orijent 1919	9	−1	12
10	Opatija	9	−1	11
11	Dubrava Zagreb	9	−1	11
12	Vukovar	9	−3	11
13	Sesvete	9	0	10
14	Dugopolje	9	−1	10
15	Kustosija	9	−1	10
16	Hrvace	9	−7	7