Bsk Bijelo Brdo v Orijent 1919 prediction · First NL

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 0–0 Orijent 1919 BSK BIJELO BRDO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bsk Bijelo Brdo win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.810

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.754

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bsk Bijelo Brdo win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bsk Bijelo Brdo was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Bsk Bijelo Brdo v Orijent 1919
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Orijent 1919
39′Much as we predicted: Bsk Bijelo Brdo was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–40–25
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Bsk Bijelo Brdo win 35%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Bsk Bijelo Brdo win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Bsk Bijelo Brdo 0–0 Orijent 1919
46′SECOND HALF Bsk Bijelo Brdo 0–0 Orijent 1919
48′We said Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–45–23
55′We said Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
65′We said Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Bsk Bijelo Brdo win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Orijent 1919
72′We said Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
78′We said Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Bsk Bijelo Brdo win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
83′We said Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–7
90′We said Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Bsk Bijelo Brdo win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Bsk Bijelo Brdo
FTFULL TIME Bsk Bijelo Brdo 0–0 Orijent 1919
FTBsk Bijelo Brdo 0–0 Orijent 1919 · Bsk Bijelo Brdo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bsk Bijelo Brdo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 44%, draw 27%, Orijent 1919 29%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Bsk Bijelo Brdo v Orijent 1919Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bsk Bijelo Brdo win44%

Draw27%

Orijent 1919 win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 9

Line-ups

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Orijent 1919

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Orijent 1919

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · First NL

Last match: 10 Oct · First NL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	8	+1	13
10	Orijent 1919	8	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Kovacic

13 Z. Jakovljevic

24 C. Ihejiofor

5 R. Grubisic

27 A. Benic

16 R. Tochukwu

14 F. Svraka

6 L. Cubel

7 P. Korov

22 D. Resetar

10 F. Hrs

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Dizdar

2 · N. Bilic

28 · B. Zupan

8 · M. Blazevic

19 · R. Retyi

20 · F. Drga

29 · A. Sainovic

25 · L. Nemet

Orijent 1919

Formation not confirmed

1 D. I. Maric

2 V. Sare

14 R. Valincic

28 M. Tadejevic

16 E. Vinars

26 E. Biber

6 A. Cumurdzic

25 T. Sibi

24 F. Pecek

10 F. Andrijasevic

20 J. Bilajac

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Vucetic

27 · L. Matic

17 · C. Agada

3 · P. Majdandzic

22 · F. Cirjak

15 · D. Ruzic

29 · M. Radaic

Our number · bsk bijelo brdo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Bsk Bijelo Brdo a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bsk Bijelo Brdo v Orijent 1919~~1.28 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~6 v 10

~~The market · Bsk Bijelo Brdo win~~44% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bsk Bijelo Brdo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win	44%	44%	0
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Orijent 1919 win	29%	26%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	23%	−4
Bsk Bijelo Brdo or draw	71%	74%	−3
Bsk Bijelo Brdo clean sheet	38%	–	–
Orijent 1919 clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 10.2 10.9 5.0 1 14.2 12.3 6.2 2.0 2 8.6 8.2 4.0 3 3.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bsk Bijelo Brdo down, Orijent 1919 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,102 First NL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Orijent 1919 away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Bsk Bijelo Brdo, 0.96 for Orijent 1919. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BSK 1–1 ORI · BSK 3–0 ORI · ORI 1–1 BSK · ORI 2–1 BSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 2 Sept

BSK BIJELO BRDO

LWWLWL0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–3

ORIJENT 1919

DDLWLW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	8	+6	16
2	Jadran LP	8	+5	15
3	Mladost Ždralovi	8	+1	14
4	Karlovac 1919	9	0	14
5	HNK Cibalia	8	+2	13
6	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	8	+1	13
7	Dinamo Zagreb U21	9	+1	12
8	Segesta Sisak	8	−1	11
9	Opatija	9	−1	11
10	Orijent 1919	8	−1	11
11	Vukovar	8	−2	11
12	Sesvete	9	0	10
13	Dugopolje	8	−1	9
14	Dubrava Zagreb	8	−2	8
15	Kustosija	8	−2	7
16	Hrvace	8	−6	7