Bsk Bijelo Brdo v Kustosija prediction · First NL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bsk Bijelo BrdoDrawKustosija

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bsk Bijelo Brdo 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bsk Bijelo Brdo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 44%, draw 29%, Kustosija 26%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Bsk Bijelo Brdo v KustosijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Bsk Bijelo Brdo win44%

Draw29%

Kustosija win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Kustosija

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · First NL

Last match: 23 Oct · First NL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	10	+3	17
10	Kustosija	10	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bsk bijelo brdo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Bsk Bijelo Brdo a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bsk Bijelo Brdo v Kustosija~~1.17 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in First NL this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 13~~3 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win	44%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Kustosija win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Bsk Bijelo Brdo or draw	74%	–	–
Bsk Bijelo Brdo clean sheet	44%	–	–
Kustosija clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.5%

0123450 13.4 11.8 4.6 1 16.5 12.3 5.3 2 9.3 7.5 3.1 3 3.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bsk Bijelo Brdo down, Kustosija across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 First NL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First NL matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.6% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kustosija away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Bsk Bijelo Brdo, 0.82 for Kustosija. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KUS 1–2 BSK · BSK 1–0 KUS · BSK 0–1 KUS · KUS 5–2 BSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First NL this season · since 11 Sept

BSK BIJELO BRDO

WLWLDW3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–0

KUSTOSIJA

DWLDWW0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia Zmijavci	10	+6	19
2	Segesta Sisak	10	+4	17
3	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	10	+3	17
4	Jadran LP	9	+5	16
5	HNK Cibalia	10	0	16
6	Orijent 1919	10	+1	15
7	Opatija	10	0	14
8	Mladost Ždralovi	9	−1	14
9	Karlovac 1919	10	−2	14
10	Kustosija	10	0	13
11	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	0	12
12	Sesvete	10	0	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	−2	11
14	Vukovar	10	−5	11
15	Dugopolje	10	−2	10
16	Hrvace	10	−7	8