NK Varazdin v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb prediction · Cup

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NK VarazdinDrawNK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · NK Varazdin 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NK Varazdin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NK Varazdin 46%, draw 29%, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 25%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on NK Varazdin v NK Lokomotiva ZagrebBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

NK Varazdin win46%

Draw29%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win25%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueStadion Varteks

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NK Varazdin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · HNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nk varazdin winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:29 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make NK Varazdin a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NK Varazdin v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb~~1.41 – 0.96

~~Form · Cup this season · since 9 Sept~~W1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NK Varazdin win

Published at 47%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NK Varazdin win	46%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
NK Varazdin or draw	75%	–	–
NK Varazdin clean sheet	39%	–	–
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.6 7.9 4.3 1 12.2 13.6 6.0 2 9.3 8.8 4.2 3 4.4 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NK Varazdin down, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 951 HNL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: HNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NK Varazdin at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for NK Varazdin, 0.96 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NKL 0–1 NKV · NKV 1–1 NKL · NKL 1–1 NKV · NKV 4–2 NKL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 9 Sept

NK VARAZDIN

W4–0

NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB

W2–0

NK Varazdin v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

The match pulse

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NK Varazdin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Cup this season · since 9 Sept