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Model 1.2

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Karlovac 1919 v HNK Rijeka

Karlovac 1919
1–4Full time
HNK Rijeka

Cup · TUE 20 OCT · Stadion Branko Cavlovic-Cavlek

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 19:31
Karlovac 1919 1–4 HNK Rijeka HNK RIJEKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said HNK Rijeka win71%
The market said76%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.133
The market’s Brier score0.087

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said HNK Rijeka win at 71%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: HNK Rijeka was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 10–20–71
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Karlovac 1919 v HNK Rijeka
  4. 14′We published HNK Rijeka at 71%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 2–8–90
  5. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Karlovac 1919 0–1 HNK Rijeka
  6. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' HNK Rijeka win: 71% at kick-off, 90% now
  7. 15′HNK Rijeka score on 14′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–8–90
  8. 22′We published HNK Rijeka at 71%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  9. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Karlovac 1919 0–2 HNK Rijeka
  10. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' HNK Rijeka win: 71% at kick-off, 98% now
  11. 23′HNK Rijeka find the net on 23′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  12. 40′We published HNK Rijeka at 71%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  13. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Karlovac 1919 0–3 HNK Rijeka
  14. 42′A goal for HNK Rijeka on 41′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  15. 43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Karlovac 1919 0–3 HNK Rijeka
  17. 45′SECOND HALF Karlovac 1919 0–3 HNK Rijeka
  18. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Karlovac 1919 · On: N. Ocvirek · Off: D. Scira
  19. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Karlovac 1919 · On: Bett · Off: P. Raguz Corrected
  20. 61′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  21. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Karlovac 1919 0–4 HNK Rijeka
  22. 62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' HNK Rijeka
  23. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Karlovac 1919 1–3 HNK Rijeka
  24. 76′Karlovac 1919 score on 76′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  25. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 66' HNK Rijeka · On: M. Mohebi · Off: J. Lasickas
  26. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 66' HNK Rijeka · On: J. Puljic · Off: T. Fruk
  27. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 66' HNK Rijeka · On: I. Cubelic · Off: T. Dantas
  28. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' HNK Rijeka
  29. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Karlovac 1919
  30. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Karlovac 1919 · On: L. Vucelic · Off: I. Zaverukha
  31. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Karlovac 1919 · On: I. Fumic · Off: M. Stipic
  32. 84′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  33. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Karlovac 1919 1–4 HNK Rijeka
  34. 85′HNK Rijeka find the net on 85′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  35. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' HNK Rijeka · On: A. Juric · Off: D. Adu Adjei
  36. 90′Full time, 1–4. We called HNK Rijeka at 71% — that one lands. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  37. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Karlovac 1919 · On: M. Gaspar · Off: D. Ropar
  38. FTFULL TIME Karlovac 1919 1–4 HNK Rijeka
  39. FTKarlovac 1919 1–4 HNK Rijeka · HNK Rijeka win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HNK Rijeka are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karlovac 1919 9%, draw 20%, HNK Rijeka 71%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Karlovac 1919 v HNK RijekaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Karlovac 1919 win9%
Draw20%
HNK Rijeka win71%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueStadion Branko Cavlovic-Cavlek

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karlovac 1919

HNK Rijeka

4Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · First NL

Last match: 16 Oct · HNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hnk rijeka winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
71% The market76%
Us71%
Market76%

We make HNK Rijeka a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Karlovac 1919 v HNK Rijeka0.59 – 2.01
Form · Cup this season · since 26 AugW2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · HNK Rijeka win76% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80%85% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 16:44
Our probability · HNK Rijeka win The market, margin stripped

Published at 72%, 71% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Karlovac 1919 win9%8%+1
Draw20%16%+4
HNK Rijeka win71%76%−5
Over 2.5 goals48%59%−11
Both teams to score39%42%−3
Over 1.5 goals74%79%−5
Over 3.5 goals26%39%−13
Karlovac 1919 or draw29%24%+5
Karlovac 1919 clean sheet13%––
HNK Rijeka clean sheet56%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 15.0%
0123450 7.7 14.6 15.0 10.1 5.1 2.01 4.1 9.1 8.8 5.9 3.0 2 2.6 2.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Karlovac 1919 down, HNK Rijeka across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 26 Aug

KARLOVAC 1919

WW4–1 · 2–0

HNK RIJEKA

W6–0