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Sporting San Jose v San Carlos

Sporting San Jose
3–3Full time
San Carlos

Primera División · TUE 20 OCT · Estadio Puente de Piedra

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 03:35
Sporting San Jose 3–3 San Carlos SPORTING SAN JOSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sporting San Jose win47%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.816
The market’s Brier score0.890

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 37 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting San Jose win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting San Jose 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sporting San Jose v San Carlos
  4. 2′🟨 YELLOW · 2' San Carlos
  5. 8′Sporting San Jose score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
  6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Sporting San Jose 1–0 San Carlos
  7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Sporting San Jose win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
  8. 9′We said Sporting San Jose at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
  9. 13′We said Sporting San Jose at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  10. 22′7′: A. Lopez on the scoresheet for Sporting San Jose, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–7
  11. 25′Sporting San Jose find the net on 25′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
  12. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Sporting San Jose 2–0 San Carlos
  13. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Sporting San Jose win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
  14. 26′We said Sporting San Jose at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
  15. 28′A goal for San Carlos on 27′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 76–18–7
  16. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Sporting San Jose 2–1 San Carlos
  17. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Sporting San Jose win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
  18. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 76–18–7
  19. 31′Sporting San Jose score on 31′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  20. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Sporting San Jose 3–1 San Carlos
  21. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Sporting San Jose win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
  22. 32′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  23. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Sporting San Jose
  24. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Sporting San Jose
  25. 41′We said Sporting San Jose at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  26. 45′HALF-TIME Sporting San Jose 3–1 San Carlos
  27. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 16' K. Espinoza · Sporting San Jose
  28. 46′SECOND HALF Sporting San Jose 3–1 San Carlos
  29. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Sporting San Jose
  30. 55′San Carlos find the net on 55′. 3–2. 3–2 · 80–17–3
  31. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sporting San Jose 3–2 San Carlos
  32. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Sporting San Jose win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
  33. 56′We said Sporting San Jose at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 3–2 · 80–16–3
  34. 57′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 81–16–3
  35. 58′San Carlos pull one back on 54′ through Y. Piedra. 3–2. 3–2 · 81–16–3
  36. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' San Carlos
  37. 69′We said Sporting San Jose at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
  38. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Sporting San Jose win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  39. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sporting San Jose · On: G. Leiva · Off: J. Navarro
  40. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sporting San Jose · On: R. Carballo · Off: M. George Clayton
  41. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sporting San Jose · On: Y. Salas · Off: A. Lopez
  42. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sporting San Jose · On: J. Mendez · Off: M. Urena
  43. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 55' San Carlos · On: J. Aguilar · Off: C. Martinez
  44. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 54' San Carlos · On: C. Agualimpia · Off: G. Castillo Cespedes
  45. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' San Carlos · On: D. Masis · Off: J. Valverde
  46. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' San Carlos · On: A. Guevara · Off: K. Cerdas
  47. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sporting San Jose · On: D. Colindres · Off: J. Pinto
  48. 80′A goal for San Carlos on 80′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 13–78–9
  49. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Sporting San Jose 3–3 San Carlos
  50. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Sporting San Jose win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
  51. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Sporting San Jose win 91%)
  52. 81′We said Sporting San Jose at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 3–3 · 12–80–8
  53. 83′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 10–84–7
  54. 84′We said Sporting San Jose at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 3–3 · 8–86–6
  55. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' San Carlos
  56. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Sporting San Jose win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  57. 90′We said Sporting San Jose at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–93–3
  58. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Sporting San Jose
  59. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' San Carlos · On: P. Fonseca · Off: Y. Piedra
  60. FTFULL TIME Sporting San Jose 3–3 San Carlos
  61. FTSporting San Jose 3–3 San Carlos · Sporting San Jose win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting San Jose are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting San Jose 47%, draw 27%, San Carlos 26%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sporting San Jose v San CarlosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Sporting San Jose win47%
Draw27%
San Carlos win26%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Puente de Piedra

Line-ups

Sporting San Jose

San Carlos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting San Jose

San Carlos

4Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

Last match: 14 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Sporting San Jose11+420
5San Carlos11−118

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting San Jose

Formation not confirmed

23 L. Moreira

98 I. Gomez

2 Y. Salinas

5 A. Soto

3 K. Espinoza

8 C. Pineda

9 M. George Clayton

7 J. Pinto

10 A. Lopez

28 J. Navarro

21 M. Urena

Coach · Andres Carevic

Substitutes

99 · R. Leal

33 · E. Pastrana

22 · Y. Salas

20 · R. Bolanos

36 · J. Hernandez

6 · G. Leiva

14 · D. Colindres

19 · J. Mendez

16 · R. Ramirez

11 · R. Carballo

San Carlos

Formation not confirmed

23 J. Vega

2 J. Valverde

6 Y. Piedra

16 G. Castillo Cespedes

17 J. Evans

22 J. Aguero

5 C. Martinez

10 K. Cerdas

11 R. Cordoba

21 J. Venegas

88 R. Vidal

Coach · –

Substitutes

77 · J. Vega

4 · P. Fonseca

7 · A. Guevara

8 · E. Hernandez

18 · J. Aguilar

20 · C. Agualimpia

27 · D. Masis

30 · P. Aguero

38 · K. Gomez

41 · J. Pilarte

Our number · sporting san jose winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off
47% The market55%
Us47%
Market55%

We make Sporting San Jose a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sporting San Jose v San Carlos1.41 – 0.97
Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 AugW4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 20 v 183 v 5
The market · Sporting San Jose win55% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 14 OCT 04:3720 OCT 00:36
Our probability · Sporting San Jose win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sporting San Jose win47%55%−8
Draw27%26%+1
San Carlos win26%19%+7
Over 2.5 goals42%48%−6
Both teams to score47%50%−3
Over 1.5 goals69%72%−3
Over 3.5 goals22%28%−6
Sporting San Jose or draw74%81%−7
Sporting San Jose clean sheet38%––
San Carlos clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%
0123450 9.6 8.9 4.4 1 12.9 12.6 6.1 2.0 2 9.1 8.7 4.3 3 4.3 4.1 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting San Jose down, San Carlos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored2 of 10
Last meetingsSAN 1–0 SPO · SPO 1–0 SAN · SAN 3–0 SPO · SAN 0–3 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug

SPORTING SAN JOSE

WLWWWL2–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–6

SAN CARLOS

LWWWWL1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Deportivo Saprissa12+1424
2CS Cartagines12+924
3Sporting San Jose11+420
4LD Alajuelense12+619
5San Carlos11−118
6Inter San Carlos12−318
7Puntarenas FC11−712
8CS Herediano12−411
9Escorpiones Belén11−510
10Perez Zeledon12−139

The competition's standings before kick-off.