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Sporting San Jose v CS Cartagines

Sporting San Jose

3–1Full time

CS Cartagines

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Puente de Piedra

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:30

Sporting San Jose 3–1 CS Cartagines SPORTING SAN JOSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting San Jose win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.568

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.516

Corrected on 16 Oct: this prediction was last updated after the match had started (it kicked off on 10 Oct 03:00), so it is shown but not counted in the record’s figures.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting San Jose win at 39%.
46′45′ and it is 1–0: Sporting San Jose have scored. 1–0 · 73–20–6
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Sporting San Jose win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
65′⚽ GOAL · 46' Sporting San Jose 1–1 CS Cartagines
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Sporting San Jose 2–1 CS Cartagines
80′⚽ GOAL · 58' Sporting San Jose 2–1 CS Cartagines · A. Hernandez
80′⚽ GOAL · 71' Sporting San Jose 2–1 CS Cartagines · J. Navarro
81′⚽ GOAL · 71' Sporting San Jose 2–1 CS Cartagines · J. Navarro
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sporting San Jose · On: J. Navarro · Off: J. Pinto Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Sporting San Jose
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' CS Cartagines · On: M. Villalobos · Off: L. Flores
87′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Sporting San Jose
87′🟨 YELLOW · 83' A. Soto · Sporting San Jose
88′🟨 YELLOW · 83' A. Soto · Sporting San Jose
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Sporting San Jose
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Sporting San Jose
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Sporting San Jose 3–1 CS Cartagines
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Sporting San Jose 3–2 CS Cartagines
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Sporting San Jose 3–2 CS Cartagines · D. Colindres
FTSporting San Jose 3–1 CS Cartagines · Sporting San Jose win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sporting San Jose win39%

Draw28%

CS Cartagines win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 22:00

Venue · Estadio Puente de Piedra

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sporting San Jose

Formation not confirmed

23 L. Moreira

22 Y. Salas

3 K. Espinoza

5 A. Soto

27 A. Chevez

7 J. Pinto

10 A. Lopez

8 C. Pineda

6 G. Leiva

19 J. Mendez

9 M. George Clayton

Coach · Andres Carevic

Substitutes

99 · R. Leal

30 · S. Gomez

98 · I. Gomez

20 · R. Bolanos

33 · E. Pastrana

18 · M. Rojas Rodriguez

16 · R. Ramirez

14 · D. Colindres

28 · J. Navarro

21 · M. Urena

CS Cartagines

Formation not confirmed

33 C. Moya

18 C. Barahona

4 L. A. Olivas Salcedo

20 D. Mesen

21 J. Cortes

8 D. Lopez

15 L. Flores

27 J. Mora

7 M. Moran

9 Tepa

22 A. Hernandez

Coach · Amarini Villatoro

Substitutes

34 · D. Hidalgo

2 · R. Cordero

12 · J. Quiros

16 · G. Castro

19 · D. Gonzalez Hernandez

26 · B. Alfaro

6 · C. Montero

30 · A. Mora

31 · G. M. Morera

39 · M. Villalobos

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting San Jose

Formation not confirmed

23 L. Moreira

22 Y. Salas

3 K. Espinoza

5 A. Soto

27 A. Chevez

7 J. Pinto

10 A. Lopez

8 C. Pineda

6 G. Leiva

19 J. Mendez

9 M. George Clayton

Coach · Andres Carevic

Substitutes

99 · R. Leal

30 · S. Gomez

98 · I. Gomez

20 · R. Bolanos

33 · E. Pastrana

18 · M. Rojas Rodriguez

16 · R. Ramirez

14 · D. Colindres

28 · J. Navarro

21 · M. Urena

CS Cartagines

Formation not confirmed

33 C. Moya

18 C. Barahona

4 L. A. Olivas Salcedo

20 D. Mesen

21 J. Cortes

8 D. Lopez

15 L. Flores

27 J. Mora

7 M. Moran

9 Tepa

22 A. Hernandez

Coach · Amarini Villatoro

Substitutes

34 · D. Hidalgo

2 · R. Cordero

12 · J. Quiros

16 · G. Castro

19 · D. Gonzalez Hernandez

26 · B. Alfaro

6 · C. Montero

30 · A. Mora

31 · G. M. Morera

39 · M. Villalobos

Our number · sporting san jose winPublished 10 Oct 04:16

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Sporting San Jose a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting San Jose win	39%	41%	−3
Draw	28%	29%	0
CS Cartagines win	33%	30%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	27%	−6
Sporting San Jose or draw	67%	70%	−3
Sporting San Jose clean sheet	33%	–	–
CS Cartagines clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.1 10.6 6.0 2.2 1 11.7 13.2 7.2 2.7 2 7.2 7.9 4.4 3 3.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting San Jose down, CS Cartagines across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,316 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 2.95 goals a meeting; 11 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting San Jose at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). CS Cartagines away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Sporting San Jose, 1.11 for CS Cartagines. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.95

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 20

~~Both scored~~14 of 20

~~Last meetings~~CSC 2–1 SPO · SPO 2–3 CSC · CSC 0–2 SPO · CSC 1–0 SPO

Form · last six in Primera División

SPORTING SAN JOSE

WWWLWW2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–1

CS CARTAGINES

LWWWWL2–3 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	9	+10	21
2	CS Cartagines	9	+8	18
3	Sporting San Jose	9	+8	17
4	San Carlos	8	+2	15
5	LD Alajuelense	9	+5	14
6	Inter San Carlos	9	−3	14
7	Puntarenas FC	9	−2	12
8	Perez Zeledon	9	−7	8
9	CS Herediano	9	−9	5
10	Escorpiones Belén	8	−12	1