San Carlos v Deportivo Saprissa prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San CarlosDrawDeportivo Saprissa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Saprissa 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Saprissa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Carlos 28%, draw 25%, Deportivo Saprissa 46%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on San Carlos v Deportivo SaprissaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

San Carlos win28%

Draw25%

Deportivo Saprissa win46%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Carlos

Deportivo Saprissa

5Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

Last match: 22 Oct · CONCACAF Central American Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo saprissa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Deportivo Saprissa a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Carlos v Deportivo Saprissa~~1.16 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 24~~5 v 1

~~The market · Deportivo Saprissa win~~48% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Saprissa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Carlos win	28%	24%	+4
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Deportivo Saprissa win	46%	48%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	49%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
San Carlos or draw	54%	52%	+2
San Carlos clean sheet	21%	–	–
Deportivo Saprissa clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.0 10.3 8.0 4.2 1 7.6 12.0 9.1 4.7 2 4.5 6.8 5.3 2.7 3 2.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Carlos down, Deportivo Saprissa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,332 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Carlos at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Saprissa away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for San Carlos, 1.55 for Deportivo Saprissa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–1 SAN · SAN 1–3 DEP · DEP 2–1 SAN · SAN 0–2 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept

SAN CARLOS

WWWWLD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–3

DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA

WLWLWL2–0 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 6–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	12	+14	24
2	CS Cartagines	12	+9	24
3	Sporting San Jose	13	+6	24
4	LD Alajuelense	12	+6	19
5	San Carlos	12	−1	19
6	Puntarenas FC	13	−4	18
7	Inter San Carlos	13	−5	18
8	CS Herediano	12	−4	11
9	Escorpiones Belén	13	−8	10
10	Perez Zeledon	12	−13	9