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Puntarenas FC v LD Alajuelense

Puntarenas FC

1–1Full time

LD Alajuelense

Primera División · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Angel Lito Perez Treacy

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

Puntarenas FC 1–1 LD Alajuelense LD ALAJUELENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said LD Alajuelense win~~45%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.789

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said LD Alajuelense win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: LD Alajuelense 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 27–28–45
1′KICK-OFF Puntarenas FC v LD Alajuelense
2′Little has changed for our model: LD Alajuelense 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 27–28–45
15′🟨 YELLOW · 16' LD Alajuelense
23′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Puntarenas FC
32′🟨 YELLOW · 15' R. Wilson · LD Alajuelense
32′🟨 YELLOW · 24' P. Alvarez · Puntarenas FC
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Puntarenas FC 0–1 LD Alajuelense
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Puntarenas FC 0–1 LD Alajuelense
45′SECOND HALF Puntarenas FC 0–1 LD Alajuelense
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Puntarenas FC · On: K. E. Cabezas Rodriguez · Off: P. Alvarez
56′🟨 YELLOW · 15' R. Wilson · LD Alajuelense
56′🟨 YELLOW · 24' P. Alvarez · Puntarenas FC
56′⚽ GOAL · 44' Puntarenas FC 0–1 LD Alajuelense · R. Cisneros
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Puntarenas FC · On: K. E. Cabezas Rodriguez · Off: P. Alvarez
60′🟨 YELLOW · 15' R. Wilson · LD Alajuelense
60′🟨 YELLOW · 24' P. Alvarez · Puntarenas FC
60′⚽ GOAL · 44' Puntarenas FC 0–1 LD Alajuelense · R. Cisneros
60′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Puntarenas FC · On: K. E. Cabezas Rodriguez · Off: P. Alvarez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 56' LD Alajuelense · On: A. Gamboa · Off: G. Gonzalez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 56' LD Alajuelense · On: C. Perez · Off: Juanpi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' LD Alajuelense · On: L. Diaz · Off: K. Michel
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' LD Alajuelense
89′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Puntarenas FC · On: W. Cortes · Off: K. Villalobos
89′🟨 YELLOW · 86' LD Alajuelense
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Puntarenas FC 1–1 LD Alajuelense · R. Cisneros
90′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Y. Molina · LD Alajuelense
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Puntarenas FC 1–1 LD Alajuelense
FTFULL TIME Puntarenas FC 1–1 LD Alajuelense
FTPuntarenas FC 1–1 LD Alajuelense · LD Alajuelense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Puntarenas FC win27%

Draw28%

LD Alajuelense win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Angel Lito Perez Treacy

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Puntarenas FC

Formation not confirmed

97 A. Pineda

25 K. Gomez

17 W. Decas

12 K. Villalobos

60 J. Leiva

5 Y. Tejeda

8 U. Segura

41 D. Cordero

10 R. Cole

77 P. Alvarez

21 D. Rodriguez

Coach · Cesar Alpizar

Substitutes

29 · V. Edghill

2 · W. Cortes

11 · R. Taylor

6 · K. E. Cabezas Rodriguez

26 · J. Hernandez

22 · D. Castrillo

7 · L. Comachi

37 · S. Pastrana

28 · Y. Obando

80 · D. Sequeira

LD Alajuelense

Formation not confirmed

23 W. J. Ortega Olivera

28 Y. Sosa

3 G. Gonzalez

21 Y. Molina

22 R. Matarrita

5 C. Borges

14 R. Wilson

10 Juanpi

7 A. Hernandez

99 K. Michel

18 R. Cisneros

Coach · Oscar Ramirez

Substitutes

1 · B. Mora

35 · R. Parkins

13 · A. Gamboa

26 · F. Pinar

9 · A. Zaldivar

42 · J. Ruiz

34 · C. Perez

24 · A. Salazar

44 · E. Barley

11 · L. Diaz

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Puntarenas FC

Formation not confirmed

97 A. Pineda

25 K. Gomez

17 W. Decas

12 K. Villalobos

60 J. Leiva

5 Y. Tejeda

8 U. Segura

41 D. Cordero

10 R. Cole

77 P. Alvarez

21 D. Rodriguez

Coach · Cesar Alpizar

Substitutes

29 · V. Edghill

2 · W. Cortes

11 · R. Taylor

6 · K. E. Cabezas Rodriguez

26 · J. Hernandez

22 · D. Castrillo

7 · L. Comachi

37 · S. Pastrana

28 · Y. Obando

80 · D. Sequeira

LD Alajuelense

Formation not confirmed

23 W. J. Ortega Olivera

28 Y. Sosa

3 G. Gonzalez

21 Y. Molina

22 R. Matarrita

5 C. Borges

14 R. Wilson

10 Juanpi

7 A. Hernandez

99 K. Michel

18 R. Cisneros

Coach · Oscar Ramirez

Substitutes

1 · B. Mora

35 · R. Parkins

13 · A. Gamboa

26 · F. Pinar

9 · A. Zaldivar

42 · J. Ruiz

34 · C. Perez

24 · A. Salazar

44 · E. Barley

11 · L. Diaz

Our number · ld alajuelense winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

45% The market48%

Us45%

~~Market~~48%

We make LD Alajuelense a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ld alajuelense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puntarenas FC win	27%	25%	+2
Draw	28%	26%	+2
LD Alajuelense win	45%	48%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	54%	−13
Both teams to score	45%	57%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	67%	76%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	20%	33%	−13
Puntarenas FC or draw	55%	52%	+4
Puntarenas FC clean sheet	27%	–	–
LD Alajuelense clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.5 13.2 8.8 3.9 1 9.6 13.0 8.4 3.8 2 4.8 6.2 4.1 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puntarenas FC down, LD Alajuelense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,316 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

18 previous meetings, 2.22 goals a meeting; 7 of 18 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puntarenas FC at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). LD Alajuelense away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Puntarenas FC, 1.33 for LD Alajuelense. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

18 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 18

~~Both scored~~6 of 18

~~Last meetings~~LDA 2–1 PUN · LDA 5–2 PUN · PUN 2–0 LDA · LDA 2–2 PUN

Form · last six in Primera División

PUNTARENAS FC

LWWLDW1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

LD ALAJUELENSE

WLDLLW2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	9	+10	21
2	CS Cartagines	9	+8	18
3	Sporting San Jose	9	+8	17
4	San Carlos	8	+2	15
5	LD Alajuelense	9	+5	14
6	Inter San Carlos	9	−3	14
7	Puntarenas FC	9	−2	12
8	Perez Zeledon	9	−7	8
9	CS Herediano	9	−9	5
10	Escorpiones Belén	8	−12	1