Puntarenas FC v Inter San Carlos prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Puntarenas FCDrawInter San Carlos

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Puntarenas FC 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Puntarenas FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Puntarenas FC 47%, draw 26%, Inter San Carlos 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Puntarenas FC v Inter San CarlosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Puntarenas FC win47%

Draw26%

Inter San Carlos win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Angel Lito Perez Treacy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puntarenas FC

Inter San Carlos

5Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Inter San Carlos	12	−3	18
7	Puntarenas FC	12	−6	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · puntarenas fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market39%

Us47%

~~Market~~39%

We make Puntarenas FC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puntarenas FC v Inter San Carlos~~1.47 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~7 v 6

~~The market · Puntarenas FC win~~39% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Puntarenas FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puntarenas FC win	47%	39%	+8
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Inter San Carlos win	27%	32%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	57%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	30%	−5
Puntarenas FC or draw	73%	68%	+5
Puntarenas FC clean sheet	36%	–	–
Inter San Carlos clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.5 8.4 4.4 1 11.9 12.4 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.6 3 4.4 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puntarenas FC down, Inter San Carlos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,331 Primera División matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puntarenas FC at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Inter San Carlos away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Puntarenas FC, 1.03 for Inter San Carlos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~INT 1–1 PUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept

PUNTARENAS FC

LDWDLW1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

INTER SAN CARLOS

WDLDWL2–0 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	12	+14	24
2	CS Cartagines	12	+9	24
3	Sporting San Jose	13	+6	24
4	LD Alajuelense	12	+6	19
5	San Carlos	12	−1	19
6	Inter San Carlos	12	−3	18
7	Puntarenas FC	12	−6	15
8	CS Herediano	12	−4	11
9	Escorpiones Belén	13	−8	10
10	Perez Zeledon	12	−13	9