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Perez Zeledon v Escorpiones Belén

Perez Zeledon
1–4Full time
Escorpiones Belén

Primera División · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 02:30
Perez Zeledon 1–4 Escorpiones Belén PEREZ ZELEDON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Perez Zeledon win46%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.823
The market’s Brier score0.880

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 49 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Perez Zeledon win at 46%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Perez Zeledon was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Perez Zeledon v Escorpiones Belén
  4. 10′A goal for Escorpiones Belén on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–25–56
  5. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Perez Zeledon 0–1 Escorpiones Belén
  6. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Perez Zeledon win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
  7. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Escorpiones Belén win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Perez Zeledon win 20%)
  8. 13′We said Perez Zeledon at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
  9. 22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Perez Zeledon 0–2 Escorpiones Belén
  10. 23′21′ and it is 0–2: Escorpiones Belén have scored. 0–2 · 5–12–83
  11. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Perez Zeledon win: 46% at kick-off, 5% now
  12. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Perez Zeledon
  13. 26′We said Perez Zeledon at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–11–84
  14. 28′A goal for Escorpiones Belén on 29′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 15–25–59
  15. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Perez Zeledon 1–2 Escorpiones Belén
  16. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 23' A. Porras · Perez Zeledon
  17. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Perez Zeledon win: 46% at kick-off, 15% now
  18. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Perez Zeledon 1–3 Escorpiones Belén
  19. 29′GOAL DISALLOWED · 29' Escorpiones Belén
  20. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Perez Zeledon 1–3 Escorpiones Belén · D. Pimpinati
  21. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Perez Zeledon 1–3 Escorpiones Belén · D. Pimpinati
  22. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Escorpiones Belén
  23. 31′We said Perez Zeledon at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–3 · 4–11–86
  24. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Perez Zeledon win: 46% at kick-off, 4% now
  25. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Perez Zeledon
  26. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 23' A. Porras · Perez Zeledon
  27. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Escorpiones Belén
  28. 31′🟥 RED CARD · 32' Perez Zeledon
  29. 33′A red card for Perez Zeledon on 32′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–3 · 4–10–86
  30. 33′🟥 RED CARD · 33' Perez Zeledon
  31. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' A. Porras · Perez Zeledon
  32. 33′🟥 RED CARD · 32' A. Porras · Perez Zeledon
  33. 34′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 3–10–86
  34. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 30' A. Fernandez · Escorpiones Belén
  35. 40′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Perez Zeledon · On: B. Sequeira · Off: M. Angulo
  36. 40′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Perez Zeledon · On: R. Rodriguez · Off: A. Fallas
  37. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Escorpiones Belén
  38. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' E. Salazar · Escorpiones Belén
  39. 45′SECOND HALF Perez Zeledon 1–3 Escorpiones Belén
  40. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Perez Zeledon · On: W. Renteria · Off: J. Cordoba
  41. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Perez Zeledon · On: K. Gonzalez · Off: A. Amador
  42. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Escorpiones Belén · On: L. Mena · Off: A. Fernandez
  43. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Escorpiones Belén · On: J. Tello · Off: E. Salazar
  44. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Escorpiones Belén · On: N. Monge · Off: D. Pimpinati
  45. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Escorpiones Belén · On: D. Flores · Off: G. Fonseca
  46. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Escorpiones Belén · On: R. Montiel · Off: J. Venegas Corrected
  47. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Perez Zeledon · On: E. Marin · Off: K. Carvajal
  48. 86′86′ and it is 1–4: Escorpiones Belén have scored. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  49. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Perez Zeledon 1–4 Escorpiones Belén
  50. 87′Perez Zeledon are down to ten from 87′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  51. 87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Escorpiones Belén
  52. 87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Perez Zeledon
  53. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Escorpiones Belén
  54. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Perez Zeledon
  55. 88′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  56. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 85' B. Sequeira · Perez Zeledon
  57. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' B. Sequeira · Perez Zeledon
  58. 88′🟥 RED CARD · 87' B. Sequeira · Perez Zeledon
  59. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' D. Vega · Escorpiones Belén
  60. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Escorpiones Belén
  61. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' L. Mena · Escorpiones Belén
  62. FTFULL TIME Perez Zeledon 1–4 Escorpiones Belén
  63. FTPerez Zeledon 1–4 Escorpiones Belén · Perez Zeledon win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Perez Zeledon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Perez Zeledon 46%, draw 27%, Escorpiones Belén 27%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Perez Zeledon v Escorpiones BelénBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

Perez Zeledon win46%
Draw27%
Escorpiones Belén win27%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:00

Line-ups

Perez Zeledon

Escorpiones Belén

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Perez Zeledon

Escorpiones Belén

4Days since last match3
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Perez Zeledon10-79
10Escorpiones Belén10-87

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Perez Zeledon

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Segura

17 K. Carvajal

5 W. Fernandez

23 J. Aguirre

28 M. Nunez

15 A. Porras

10 M. Angulo

27 A. Fallas

62 A. Amador

90 J. Cordoba

9 J. Alvarado

Coach · Antonio Giacone Garita Jose

Substitutes

99 · M. Aju

4 · R. Rodriguez

14 · K. Guzman

12 · M. Trinidad Aguilar Pena

8 · E. Marin

18 · E. Quesada

19 · W. Renteria

32 · J. Canales

38 · K. Gonzalez

11 · B. Sequeira

Escorpiones Belén

Formation not confirmed

76 J. Alvarez

13 P. Morera

71 C. Ordonez

16 E. Salazar

11 A. Fernandez

10 G. Fonseca

8 C. Munoz

15 D. Vega

77 I. Espinoza

99 D. Pimpinati

21 J. Venegas

Coach · Andres Arias

Substitutes

1 · R. Montenegro

6 · L. Mena

3 · J. Tello

47 · M. Camejo

18 · R. Pena

80 · D. Flores

30 · N. Monge

7 · A. Hidalgo

9 · R. Montiel

19 · J. Serrano

Our number · perez zeledon winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off
46% The market49%
Us46%
Market49%

We make Perez Zeledon a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Perez Zeledon v Escorpiones Belén1.39 – 0.98
Last six in Primera DivisiónW1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 9 v 78 v 10
The market · Perez Zeledon win49% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 07:1914 OCT 21:37
Our probability · perez zeledon win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Perez Zeledon win46%49%−3
Draw27%26%+1
Escorpiones Belén win27%25%+2
Over 2.5 goals42%52%−10
Both teams to score47%54%−8
Over 1.5 goals68%75%−6
Over 3.5 goals22%31%−10
Perez Zeledon or draw73%75%−2
Perez Zeledon clean sheet38%––
Escorpiones Belén clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%
0123450 9.7 9.1 4.6 1 12.8 12.7 6.2 2.1 2 8.9 8.6 4.3 3 4.2 4.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Perez Zeledon down, Escorpiones Belén across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting0.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsESC 0–0 PER

Form · last six in Primera División

PEREZ ZELEDON

LDWLLD0–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

ESCORPIONES BELÉN

LLLLLW1–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Deportivo Saprissa10921
2Sporting San Jose101020
3CS Cartagines10618
4San Carlos10018
5LD Alajuelense10515
6Inter San Carlos10-315
7Puntarenas FC10-512
8Perez Zeledon10-79
9CS Herediano10-77
10Escorpiones Belén10-87

The competition's standings.