Perez Zeledon v CS Herediano prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Perez Zeledon 0–3 CS Herediano CS HEREDIANO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CS Herediano win~~46%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.443

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.394

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CS Herediano win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: CS Herediano was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 26–28–45
1′KICK-OFF Perez Zeledon v CS Herediano
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' CS Herediano
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Perez Zeledon
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Perez Zeledon
40′We published CS Herediano at 46%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 5–18–77
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Perez Zeledon 0–1 CS Herediano
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' CS Herediano win: 46% at kick-off, 77% now
41′CS Herediano find the net on 41′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–77
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–77
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' CS Herediano
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' CS Herediano win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was CS Herediano win 35%)
45′SECOND HALF Perez Zeledon 0–0 CS Herediano
47′We said CS Herediano at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–44–34
49′HALF-TIME Perez Zeledon 0–0 CS Herediano
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Perez Zeledon · On: J. Canales · Off: K. Gonzalez
57′SUBSTITUTION · 51' CS Herediano · On: D. Gonzalez · Off: N. Bennette
57′SUBSTITUTION · 51' CS Herediano · On: R. Araya · Off: E. Bravo
58′We said CS Herediano at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–52–29
61′PENALTY MISSED · 61' Perez Zeledon
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' CS Herediano win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
66′We said CS Herediano at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–59–24
69′We published CS Herediano at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Perez Zeledon 0–1 CS Herediano
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' CS Herediano win: 46% at kick-off, 85% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' CS Herediano win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
70′CS Herediano find the net on 69′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–13–85
71′We published CS Herediano at 46%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' CS Herediano win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Perez Zeledon 0–2 CS Herediano
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' CS Herediano win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
72′A goal for CS Herediano on 72′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′We published CS Herediano at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Perez Zeledon 0–3 CS Herediano
76′CS Herediano score on 75′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Perez Zeledon · On: L. Hernandez · Off: K. Carvajal
82′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Perez Zeledon · On: A. Fallas · Off: W. Renteria
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Perez Zeledon · On: M. Angulo · Off: A. Amador
83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Perez Zeledon · On: J. Valverde · Off: J. Aguirre
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Perez Zeledon
91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CS Herediano · On: E. Rubio · Off: A. Cruz
91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CS Herediano · On: R. Rivera · Off: H. Quiros
FTFULL TIME Perez Zeledon 0–3 CS Herediano
FTPerez Zeledon 0–3 CS Herediano · CS Herediano win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CS Herediano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Perez Zeledon 26%, draw 28%, CS Herediano 46%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Perez Zeledon v CS HeredianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Perez Zeledon win26%

Draw28%

CS Herediano win46%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 23:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Line-ups

Perez Zeledon

CS Herediano

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Perez Zeledon

CS Herediano

4Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Perez Zeledon	11	−10	9
10	CS Herediano	11	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Perez Zeledon

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Segura

4 R. Rodriguez

5 W. Fernandez

17 K. Carvajal

28 M. Nunez

19 W. Renteria

23 J. Aguirre

34 D. Munoz

62 A. Amador

38 K. Gonzalez

9 J. Alvarado

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · M. Aju

6 · L. Hernandez

14 · K. Guzman

8 · E. Marin

10 · M. Angulo

18 · E. Quesada

32 · J. Canales

27 · A. Fallas

30 · J. Cordoba

36 · J. Valverde

CS Herediano

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Carvajal

5 H. Quiros

16 D. Araya

99 K. Brown

38 G. Montes

8 A. Cruz

26 E. Juarez

45 N. Bennette

10 E. Aguilar

25 E. Bravo

33 F. Lesme

Coach · Jafet Soto

Substitutes

31 · A. Lezcano

11 · R. Araya

20 · R. Rivera

21 · E. Rubio

22 · A. Murillo

27 · A. Suarez

32 · A. Hudson

34 · J. Henestrosa

42 · D. Gonzalez

97 · R. Leal

Our number · cs herediano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:43 · locked at kick-off

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make CS Herediano a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Perez Zeledon v CS Herediano~~0.95 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~9 v 10

~~The market · CS Herediano win~~49% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CS Herediano win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Perez Zeledon win	26%	24%	+2
Draw	28%	27%	+1
CS Herediano win	46%	49%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
Both teams to score	45%	53%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	67%	73%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	29%	−9
Perez Zeledon or draw	54%	51%	+3
Perez Zeledon clean sheet	26%	–	–
CS Herediano clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.4 13.3 9.1 4.1 1 9.4 12.9 8.5 3.9 2 4.6 6.1 4.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Perez Zeledon down, CS Herediano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,326 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Perez Zeledon at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). CS Herediano away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Perez Zeledon, 1.35 for CS Herediano. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CSH 2–3 PER · PER 0–1 CSH · CSH 3–0 PER · PER 1–3 CSH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

PEREZ ZELEDON

DWLLDL1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–4

CS HEREDIANO

LLWLLD0–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	11	+15	24
2	CS Cartagines	11	+8	21
3	Sporting San Jose	11	+4	20
4	LD Alajuelense	12	+6	19
5	San Carlos	11	−1	18
6	Inter San Carlos	12	−3	18
7	Puntarenas FC	11	−7	12
8	Escorpiones Belén	11	−5	10
9	Perez Zeledon	11	−10	9
10	CS Herediano	11	−7	8