LD Alajuelense v Perez Zeledon prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LD AlajuelenseDrawPerez Zeledon

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:00

Before kick-off · Match result · LD Alajuelense 72%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

LD Alajuelense are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: LD Alajuelense 72%, draw 18%, Perez Zeledon 10%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on LD Alajuelense v Perez ZeledonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

LD Alajuelense win72%

Draw18%

Perez Zeledon win10%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 00:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Alejandro Morera Soto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

LD Alajuelense

Perez Zeledon

3Days since last match8

Last match: 23 Oct · CONCACAF Central American Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	LD Alajuelense	12	+6	19
10	Perez Zeledon	12	−13	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ld alajuelense winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

72% The market73%

Us72%

~~Market~~73%

We make LD Alajuelense a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · LD Alajuelense v Perez Zeledon~~2.19 – 0.65

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 9~~4 v 10

~~The market · LD Alajuelense win~~73% · ours 72%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · LD Alajuelense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
LD Alajuelense win	72%	73%	−1
Draw	18%	17%	+1
Perez Zeledon win	10%	10%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	62%	−8
Both teams to score	42%	50%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	82%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	32%	41%	−9
LD Alajuelense or draw	90%	90%	0
LD Alajuelense clean sheet	52%	–	–
Perez Zeledon clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.8%

0123450 6.1 3.8 1 12.7 8.4 2.8 2 13.8 8.9 2.9 3 10.0 6.5 2.1 4 5.6 3.6 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+LD Alajuelense down, Perez Zeledon across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,332 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

LD Alajuelense at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Perez Zeledon away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for LD Alajuelense, 0.65 for Perez Zeledon. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PER 1–1 LDA · LDA 3–0 PER · PER 1–1 LDA · LDA 3–2 PER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept

LD ALAJUELENSE

LLWDDW0–2 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

PEREZ ZELEDON

WLLDLL3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	12	+14	24
2	CS Cartagines	12	+9	24
3	Sporting San Jose	13	+6	24
4	LD Alajuelense	12	+6	19
5	San Carlos	12	−1	19
6	Puntarenas FC	13	−4	18
7	Inter San Carlos	13	−5	18
8	CS Herediano	12	−4	11
9	Escorpiones Belén	13	−8	10
10	Perez Zeledon	12	−13	9