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LD Alajuelense v CS Herediano

LD Alajuelense

1–1Full time

CS Herediano

Primera División · THU 15 OCT · Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 05:30

LD Alajuelense 1–1 CS Herediano LD ALAJUELENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said LD Alajuelense win~~51%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.833

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.822

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 46 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said LD Alajuelense win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: LD Alajuelense 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
1′KICK-OFF LD Alajuelense v CS Herediano
7′LD Alajuelense find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
7′We said LD Alajuelense at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' LD Alajuelense 1–0 CS Herediano
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' LD Alajuelense win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' CS Herediano
16′🟨 YELLOW · 13' A. Cruz · CS Herediano
18′🟨 YELLOW · 19' LD Alajuelense
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' LD Alajuelense 2–0 CS Herediano · R. Cisneros
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' J. Ruiz · LD Alajuelense
20′A goal for LD Alajuelense on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–6
20′GOAL DISALLOWED · 20' LD Alajuelense
26′CS Herediano are down to ten from 27′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 79–16–5
26′🟥 RED CARD · 26' LD Alajuelense
26′🟥 RED CARD · 27' CS Herediano
26′🟨 YELLOW · 27' CS Herediano
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
31′🟥 RED CARD · 27' LD Alajuelense
33′We said LD Alajuelense at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
33′🟥 RED CARD · 29' R. Wilson · LD Alajuelense
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' LD Alajuelense 1–1 CS Herediano
42′A goal for CS Herediano on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–4
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' CS Herediano
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' LD Alajuelense win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
42′SUBSTITUTION · 36' CS Herediano · On: R. Araya · Off: E. Rubio
45′SECOND HALF LD Alajuelense 1–1 CS Herediano
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' LD Alajuelense
49′🟨 YELLOW · 50' LD Alajuelense
50′We said LD Alajuelense at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–46–18
50′A goal for CS Herediano on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–46–18
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' LD Alajuelense 1–1 CS Herediano
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' LD Alajuelense win: 51% at kick-off, 36% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was LD Alajuelense win 36%)
53′We said LD Alajuelense at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–18
54′🟨 YELLOW · 13' A. Cruz · CS Herediano
54′🟨 YELLOW · 19' J. Ruiz · LD Alajuelense
54′🟨 YELLOW · 27' CS Herediano
54′🟥 RED CARD · 29' R. Wilson · LD Alajuelense
54′SUBSTITUTION · 36' CS Herediano · On: R. Araya · Off: E. Rubio
54′🟨 YELLOW · 50' LD Alajuelense
57′🟨 YELLOW · 46' G. Gonzalez · LD Alajuelense
58′SUBSTITUTION · 46' LD Alajuelense · On: Y. Molina · Off: Juanpi
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' CS Herediano
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' LD Alajuelense win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
62′We said LD Alajuelense at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–15
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' CS Herediano · On: R. Leal · Off: E. Bravo
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' CS Herediano · On: A. Murillo · Off: E. Juarez
70′We said LD Alajuelense at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–64–13
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' LD Alajuelense
70′PENALTY MISSED · 71' CS Herediano
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' LD Alajuelense · On: A. Hernandez · Off: R. Matarrita
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' LD Alajuelense win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
75′We said LD Alajuelense at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
81′We said LD Alajuelense at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 12–81–7
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' LD Alajuelense win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
85′We said LD Alajuelense at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–88–5
87′🟨 YELLOW · 27' D. Carvajal · CS Herediano
87′SUBSTITUTION · 37' CS Herediano · On: R. Araya · Off: E. Rubio
90′SUBSTITUTION · 73' LD Alajuelense · On: L. Diaz · Off: R. Cisneros
91′We said LD Alajuelense at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' LD Alajuelense
92′LD Alajuelense are down to ten from 29′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 3–95–2
FTFULL TIME LD Alajuelense 1–1 CS Herediano
FTLD Alajuelense 1–1 CS Herediano · LD Alajuelense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

LD Alajuelense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: LD Alajuelense 51%, draw 27%, CS Herediano 22%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on LD Alajuelense v CS HeredianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 02:30 · locked at kick-off

LD Alajuelense win51%

Draw27%

CS Herediano win22%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 03:00

VenueEstadio Alejandro Morera Soto

Line-ups

LD Alajuelense

CS Herediano

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

LD Alajuelense

CS Herediano

5Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	LD Alajuelense	10	5	15
9	CS Herediano	10	-7	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

LD Alajuelense

Formation not confirmed

23 W. J. Ortega Olivera

28 Y. Sosa

13 A. Gamboa

3 G. Gonzalez

22 R. Matarrita

10 Juanpi

5 C. Borges

14 R. Wilson

42 J. Ruiz

18 R. Cisneros

99 K. Michel

Coach · Oscar Ramirez

Substitutes

1 · B. Mora

35 · R. Parkins

21 · Y. Molina

26 · F. Pinar

9 · A. Zaldivar

7 · A. Hernandez

34 · C. Perez

24 · A. Salazar

44 · E. Barley

11 · L. Diaz

CS Herediano

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Carvajal

5 H. Quiros

38 G. Montes

99 K. Brown

16 D. Araya

21 E. Rubio

8 A. Cruz

26 E. Juarez

25 E. Bravo

10 E. Aguilar

33 F. Lesme

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · A. Lezcano

11 · R. Araya

20 · R. Rivera

22 · A. Murillo

27 · A. Suarez

32 · A. Hudson

34 · J. Henestrosa

45 · N. Bennette

80 · D. Matthews

97 · R. Leal

37 · K. Fuller

Our number · ld alajuelense winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 02:30 · locked at kick-off

51% The market49%

Us51%

~~Market~~49%

We make LD Alajuelense a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · LD Alajuelense v CS Herediano~~1.42 – 0.83

~~Last six in Primera División~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 15 v 7~~6 v 9

~~The market · LD Alajuelense win~~49% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ld alajuelense win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. The market has gone from 48% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
LD Alajuelense win	51%	49%	+2
Draw	27%	27%	0
CS Herediano win	22%	24%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	49%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−6
LD Alajuelense or draw	78%	76%	+2
LD Alajuelense clean sheet	44%	–	–
CS Herediano clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 10.8 8.6 3.6 1 14.8 12.4 5.1 2 10.6 8.7 3.6 3 5.1 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+LD Alajuelense down, CS Herediano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,322 Primera División matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

31 previous meetings, 2.32 goals a meeting; 13 of 31 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

LD Alajuelense at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). CS Herediano away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for LD Alajuelense, 0.83 for CS Herediano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

31 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.32

~~Over 2.5~~13 of 31

~~Both scored~~15 of 31

~~Last meetings~~CSH 0–3 LDA · CSH 2–1 LDA · LDA 1–1 CSH · CSH 1–3 LDA

Form · last six in Primera División

LD ALAJUELENSE

LDLLWD0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 1–1

CS HEREDIANO

LLLWLL0–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	10	9	21
2	CS Cartagines	11	8	21
3	Sporting San Jose	10	10	20
4	San Carlos	11	-1	18
5	Inter San Carlos	11	-2	18
6	LD Alajuelense	10	5	15
7	Puntarenas FC	11	-7	12
8	Perez Zeledon	10	-7	9
9	CS Herediano	10	-7	7
10	Escorpiones Belén	10	-8	7