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Inter San Carlos v LD Alajuelense

Inter San Carlos

2–3Full time

LD Alajuelense

Primera División · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 05:30

Inter San Carlos 2–3 LD Alajuelense LD ALAJUELENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said LD Alajuelense win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.448

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.479

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said LD Alajuelense win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: LD Alajuelense 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 27–28–45
1′KICK-OFF Inter San Carlos v LD Alajuelense
16′We said LD Alajuelense at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 9–18–74
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Inter San Carlos 0–1 LD Alajuelense
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' LD Alajuelense win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
17′LD Alajuelense find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–18–74
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Inter San Carlos 1–1 LD Alajuelense
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' LD Alajuelense win: 45% at kick-off, 42% now
22′A goal for Inter San Carlos on 22′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–33–41
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Inter San Carlos 1–2 LD Alajuelense
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' LD Alajuelense win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
26′LD Alajuelense score on 23′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–18–74
28′We said LD Alajuelense at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 7–18–75
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' LD Alajuelense win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' LD Alajuelense
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 7–18–75
45′SECOND HALF Inter San Carlos 1–2 LD Alajuelense
51′HALF-TIME Inter San Carlos 1–2 LD Alajuelense
56′We said LD Alajuelense at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 4–17–80
59′We said LD Alajuelense at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 20–52–29
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Inter San Carlos 2–2 LD Alajuelense
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' LD Alajuelense win: 45% at kick-off, 29% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was LD Alajuelense win 29%)
60′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 19–52–28
62′Inter San Carlos find the net on 60′. 2–2. 2–2 · 19–54–27
65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Inter San Carlos · On: C. Villegas Sequeira · Off: A. Ramos
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' LD Alajuelense win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
68′We said LD Alajuelense at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 16–61–23
69′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 2–14–84
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Inter San Carlos 2–3 LD Alajuelense
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' LD Alajuelense win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' LD Alajuelense win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
70′A goal for LD Alajuelense on 70′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 2–14–85
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' LD Alajuelense win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
72′We said LD Alajuelense at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–3 · 1–13–86
75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' LD Alajuelense · On: R. Matarrita · Off: C. Borges
76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' LD Alajuelense · On: A. Hernandez · Off: Juanpi
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Inter San Carlos · On: G. Casanova · Off: R. Chirino
79′We said LD Alajuelense at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–3 · 1–9–90
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' LD Alajuelense · On: A. Zaldivar · Off: R. Cisneros
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' LD Alajuelense · On: E. Cruz · Off: C. Perez
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Inter San Carlos
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' LD Alajuelense win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
86′We said LD Alajuelense at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
92′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Inter San Carlos · On: K. Porras · Off: W. Azofeifa
92′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Inter San Carlos · On: Y. Leal · Off: J. Campbell
92′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Inter San Carlos · On: F. Aleman · Off: E. Torres
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' LD Alajuelense · On: E. Barley · Off: K. Michel
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' LD Alajuelense
97′2–3 at the end. Our 45% on LD Alajuelense comes in. 2–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Inter San Carlos 2–3 LD Alajuelense
FTInter San Carlos 2–3 LD Alajuelense · LD Alajuelense win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

LD Alajuelense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter San Carlos 27%, draw 27%, LD Alajuelense 45%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Inter San Carlos v LD AlajuelenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Inter San Carlos win27%

Draw27%

LD Alajuelense win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Line-ups

Inter San Carlos

5-4-1

LD Alajuelense

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter San Carlos

LD Alajuelense

4Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

Last match: 15 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Inter San Carlos	11	−2	18
6	LD Alajuelense	11	+5	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Inter San Carlos

5-4-1

30 A. Monreal

67 C. Martinez

42 W. Gonzalez

16 A. Ramos

2 J. Chacon

79 J. Bolanos

20 W. Azofeifa

8 Y. M. Villan U.

11 R. Chirino

10 J. Campbell

9 E. Torres

Coach · Douglas Sequeira

Substitutes

1 · A. Cruz

4 · J. Ramos

13 · A. Rodriguez Elizondo

5 · N. Mendoza

40 · Y. Leal

14 · K. Porras

6 · G. Casanova

7 · S. Castro

17 · C. Villegas Sequeira

31 · F. Aleman

LD Alajuelense

4-5-1

23 W. J. Ortega Olivera

28 Y. Sosa

13 A. Gamboa

3 G. Gonzalez

42 J. Ruiz

5 C. Borges

24 A. Salazar

34 C. Perez

10 Juanpi

99 K. Michel

18 R. Cisneros

Coach · Oscar Ramirez

Substitutes

1 · B. Mora

35 · R. Parkins

21 · Y. Molina

26 · F. Pinar

9 · A. Zaldivar

7 · A. Hernandez

39 · E. Cruz

22 · R. Matarrita

44 · E. Barley

29 · D. Aguilar

Our number · ld alajuelense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make LD Alajuelense a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inter San Carlos v LD Alajuelense~~1.00 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 16~~5 v 6

~~The market · LD Alajuelense win~~43% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · LD Alajuelense win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter San Carlos win	27%	29%	−2
Draw	27%	28%	−1
LD Alajuelense win	45%	43%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	29%	−7
Inter San Carlos or draw	55%	57%	−2
Inter San Carlos clean sheet	26%	–	–
LD Alajuelense clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.6 12.5 8.8 4.1 1 9.1 12.7 8.6 4.0 2 4.7 6.3 4.3 2.0 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter San Carlos down, LD Alajuelense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,326 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inter San Carlos at home: 1.20 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). LD Alajuelense away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Inter San Carlos, 1.38 for LD Alajuelense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LDA 5–0 INT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 29 Aug

INTER SAN CARLOS

LWDLDW0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 2–1

LD ALAJUELENSE

DLLWDD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	11	+15	24
2	CS Cartagines	11	+8	21
3	Sporting San Jose	11	+4	20
4	San Carlos	11	−1	18
5	Inter San Carlos	11	−2	18
6	LD Alajuelense	11	+5	16
7	Puntarenas FC	11	−7	12
8	Escorpiones Belén	11	−5	10
9	Perez Zeledon	11	−10	9
10	CS Herediano	11	−7	8