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Escorpiones Belén v Sporting San Jose

Escorpiones Belén

2–4Full time

Sporting San Jose

Primera División · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 05:30

Escorpiones Belén 2–4 Sporting San Jose ESCORPIONES BELÉN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Escorpiones Belén win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.628

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Escorpiones Belén win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Escorpiones Belén was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–35
1′KICK-OFF Escorpiones Belén v Sporting San Jose
10′We said Escorpiones Belén at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–21–64
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Escorpiones Belén 0–1 Sporting San Jose
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Escorpiones Belén win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Sporting San Jose win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Escorpiones Belén win 36%)
13′Sporting San Jose find the net on 12′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–21–64
13′Sporting San Jose ahead on 11′ through M. Urena. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–21–64
14′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' Sporting San Jose
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Escorpiones Belén win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Sporting San Jose
31′We said Escorpiones Belén at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Escorpiones Belén 0–1 Sporting San Jose
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Escorpiones Belén win: 37% at kick-off, 11% now
32′Sporting San Jose find the net on 31′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Sporting San Jose
39′We said Escorpiones Belén at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′SECOND HALF Escorpiones Belén 1–1 Sporting San Jose
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Sporting San Jose
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Escorpiones Belén 1–1 Sporting San Jose
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Escorpiones Belén win: 37% at kick-off, 30% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Sporting San Jose win 70%)
47′A goal for Escorpiones Belén on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–42–28
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sporting San Jose · On: G. Leiva · Off: J. Hernandez
50′HALF-TIME Escorpiones Belén 1–1 Sporting San Jose
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Escorpiones Belén
56′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–21–74
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Escorpiones Belén 1–2 Sporting San Jose
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Escorpiones Belén win: 37% at kick-off, 6% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Sporting San Jose win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 48%)
58′Sporting San Jose score on 57′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Sporting San Jose · On: J. Mendez · Off: J. Navarro
61′We said Escorpiones Belén at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
61′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Escorpiones Belén 1–3 Sporting San Jose
62′Sporting San Jose find the net on 61′. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–96
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Escorpiones Belén · On: R. Lopez · Off: D. Flores
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Escorpiones Belén · On: C. Munoz · Off: N. Monge
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sporting San Jose · On: D. Colindres · Off: M. Urena
65′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' A. Lopez · Sporting San Jose
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Escorpiones Belén · On: R. Pena · Off: G. Fonseca
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Escorpiones Belén · On: A. Hidalgo · Off: D. Vega
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sporting San Jose · On: Y. Salas · Off: A. Lopez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sporting San Jose · On: C. Pineda · Off: M. George Clayton
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Escorpiones Belén
91′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Escorpiones Belén 1–4 Sporting San Jose
92′A goal for Sporting San Jose on 90′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
94′6 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–100
94′Escorpiones Belén score on 90′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Escorpiones Belén 2–4 Sporting San Jose
FTFULL TIME Escorpiones Belén 2–4 Sporting San Jose
FTEscorpiones Belén 2–4 Sporting San Jose · Escorpiones Belén win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Escorpiones Belén just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Escorpiones Belén 37%, draw 27%, Sporting San Jose 36%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Escorpiones Belén v Sporting San JoseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Escorpiones Belén win37%

Draw27%

Sporting San Jose win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 03:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Escorpiones Belén

Sporting San Jose

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sporting San Jose	12	+4	21
9	Escorpiones Belén	12	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · escorpiones belén winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Escorpiones Belén a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Escorpiones Belén v Sporting San Jose~~1.26 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 21~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Escorpiones Belén win

Published at 38%, 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Escorpiones Belén win	37%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Sporting San Jose win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Escorpiones Belén or draw	64%	–	–
Escorpiones Belén clean sheet	30%	–	–
Sporting San Jose clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.7 10.2 6.3 2.6 1 10.4 12.8 7.7 3.2 2 6.6 7.9 4.8 3 2.8 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Escorpiones Belén down, Sporting San Jose across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,331 Primera División matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Escorpiones Belén at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting San Jose away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Escorpiones Belén, 1.22 for Sporting San Jose. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SPO 2–0 ESC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept

ESCORPIONES BELÉN

LLLWWL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–2

SPORTING SAN JOSE

LWWWLD0–1 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–6 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	12	+14	24
2	CS Cartagines	12	+9	24
3	Sporting San Jose	12	+4	21
4	LD Alajuelense	12	+6	19
5	San Carlos	12	−1	19
6	Inter San Carlos	12	−3	18
7	Puntarenas FC	12	−6	15
8	CS Herediano	12	−4	11
9	Escorpiones Belén	12	−6	10
10	Perez Zeledon	12	−13	9