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Escorpiones Belén v Puntarenas FC

Escorpiones Belén

1–2Full time

Puntarenas FC

Primera División · TUE 20 OCT · Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 05:46

Escorpiones Belén 1–2 Puntarenas FC ESCORPIONES BELÉN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Escorpiones Belén win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.724

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Escorpiones Belén win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Escorpiones Belén 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
1′Puntarenas FC score on 1′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–22–59
1′KICK-OFF Escorpiones Belén v Puntarenas FC
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Escorpiones Belén 0–1 Puntarenas FC
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 1' Escorpiones Belén win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' Puntarenas FC win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Escorpiones Belén win 41%)
2′We said Escorpiones Belén at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Puntarenas FC
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Escorpiones Belén 1–1 Puntarenas FC
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Escorpiones Belén win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Escorpiones Belén win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Puntarenas FC win 61%)
16′Escorpiones Belén find the net on 15′. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–31–30
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Escorpiones Belén
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Escorpiones Belén win 36%)
42′🟥 RED CARD · 42' Escorpiones Belén
43′Escorpiones Belén are down to ten from 43′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 33–41–26
45′SECOND HALF Escorpiones Belén 1–1 Puntarenas FC
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Escorpiones Belén
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Escorpiones Belén win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Escorpiones Belén · On: N. Monge · Off: I. Espinoza
50′HALF-TIME Escorpiones Belén 1–1 Puntarenas FC
53′We said Escorpiones Belén at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–47–23
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Puntarenas FC
58′We said Escorpiones Belén at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–21–73
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Escorpiones Belén 1–2 Puntarenas FC
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Escorpiones Belén win: 41% at kick-off, 6% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Puntarenas FC win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 51%)
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Puntarenas FC
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Escorpiones Belén win: 41% at kick-off, 27% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Puntarenas FC win 73%)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Puntarenas FC · On: L. Comachi · Off: K. Villalobos
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Puntarenas FC · On: V. Edghill · Off: K. E. Cabezas Rodriguez
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Escorpiones Belén win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Escorpiones Belén · On: R. Montiel · Off: D. Vega
72′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Deyver Vega · Escorpiones Belén
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Puntarenas FC · On: Randy Taylor · Off: Jaylon Hadden
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Puntarenas FC · On: Dariel Castrillo · Off: Pablo Alvarez
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Escorpiones Belén · On: Abner hidalgo · Off: Johan Venegas
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Puntarenas FC
78′We said Escorpiones Belén at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
81′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Escorpiones Belén · On: Josue Serrano · Off: anderson fernandez
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Escorpiones Belén win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
85′We said Escorpiones Belén at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–7–93
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Escorpiones Belén 1–2 Puntarenas FC
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Escorpiones Belén win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Puntarenas FC win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 87%)
86′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–6–93
87′A goal for Puntarenas FC on 86′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
92′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Escorpiones Belén · On: D. Flores · Off: E. Salazar
92′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Puntarenas FC · On: W. Hernandez · Off: Y. Tejeda
95′1–2 at the end. Our 41% on Escorpiones Belén misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Escorpiones Belén 1–2 Puntarenas FC
FTEscorpiones Belén 1–2 Puntarenas FC · Escorpiones Belén win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Escorpiones Belén are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Escorpiones Belén 41%, draw 28%, Puntarenas FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Escorpiones Belén v Puntarenas FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Escorpiones Belén win41%

Draw28%

Puntarenas FC win31%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 03:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

VenueEstadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno

Line-ups

Escorpiones Belén

3-4-3

Puntarenas FC

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Escorpiones Belén

Puntarenas FC

6Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

Last match: 14 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Puntarenas FC	11	−7	12
9	Escorpiones Belén	11	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Escorpiones Belén

3-4-3

76 J. Alvarez

71 C. Ordonez

13 P. Morera

16 E. Salazar

11 A. Fernandez

10 G. Fonseca

8 C. Munoz

15 D. Vega

77 I. Espinoza

99 D. Pimpinati

21 J. Venegas

Coach · Andres Arias

Substitutes

1 · R. Montenegro

6 · L. Mena

47 · M. Camejo

9 · R. Montiel

7 · A. Hidalgo

3 · J. Tello

18 · R. Pena

19 · J. Serrano

80 · D. Flores

30 · N. Monge

Puntarenas FC

4-5-1

97 A. Pineda

25 K. Gomez

17 W. Decas

2 W. Cortes

12 K. Villalobos

41 D. Cordero

6 K. E. Cabezas Rodriguez

5 Y. Tejeda

33 J. Hadden

77 P. Alvarez

21 D. Rodriguez

Coach · Cesar Alpizar

Substitutes

35 · D. Rojas

29 · V. Edghill

39 · A. Gutierrez

11 · R. Taylor

22 · D. Castrillo

16 · W. Hernandez

7 · L. Comachi

37 · S. Pastrana

Our number · escorpiones belén winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 15 Oct 04:43 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Escorpiones Belén a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Escorpiones Belén v Puntarenas FC~~1.30 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~9 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Escorpiones Belén win

Published at 37%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Escorpiones Belén win	41%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Puntarenas FC win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Escorpiones Belén or draw	69%	–	–
Escorpiones Belén clean sheet	34%	–	–
Puntarenas FC clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.6 9.9 5.4 1 11.8 12.9 6.9 2.5 2 7.8 8.3 4.5 3 3.4 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Escorpiones Belén down, Puntarenas FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,329 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.71 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Escorpiones Belén at home: 0.40 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). Puntarenas FC away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Escorpiones Belén, 1.09 for Puntarenas FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.71

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PUN 1–0 ESC · PUN 1–1 ESC · ESC 2–3 PUN · ESC 1–2 PUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 30 Aug

ESCORPIONES BELÉN

LLLLWW1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 4–1

PUNTARENAS FC

WLDWDL2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	12	+14	24
2	CS Cartagines	12	+9	24
3	Sporting San Jose	11	+4	20
4	LD Alajuelense	12	+6	19
5	San Carlos	11	−1	18
6	Inter San Carlos	12	−3	18
7	Puntarenas FC	11	−7	12
8	CS Herediano	12	−4	11
9	Escorpiones Belén	11	−5	10
10	Perez Zeledon	12	−13	9