Escorpiones Belén v Deportivo Saprissa prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 02:30

Escorpiones Belén 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Saprissa win~~57%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.018

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.252

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Saprissa win at 57%.
1′KICK-OFF Escorpiones Belén v Deportivo Saprissa
2′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Saprissa 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 20–23–57
7′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Saprissa 57% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 20–24–56
21′⚽ GOAL · 23' Escorpiones Belén 0–0 Deportivo Saprissa
34′⚽ GOAL · 35' Escorpiones Belén 0–0 Deportivo Saprissa
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Escorpiones Belén 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa
45′SECOND HALF Escorpiones Belén 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Deportivo Saprissa
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Escorpiones Belén
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Escorpiones Belén · On: J. Tello · Off: J. Venegas
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Escorpiones Belén · On: R. Montiel · Off: J. Ruiz
71′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Escorpiones Belén
80′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Escorpiones Belén
81′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Escorpiones Belén
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Deportivo Saprissa · On: A. Rodriguez · Off: O. Sinclair
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Deportivo Saprissa · On: J. M. Azofeifa Rivas · Off: J. Mora
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Escorpiones Belén · On: J. Serrano · Off: D. Vega
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Escorpiones Belén · On: R. Pena · Off: G. Fonseca
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Escorpiones Belén
FTFULL TIME Escorpiones Belén 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa
FTEscorpiones Belén 1–0 Deportivo Saprissa · Deportivo Saprissa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Escorpiones Belén win20%

Draw23%

Deportivo Saprissa win57%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:00

VenueEstadio Rafael Bolanos

Line-ups

Escorpiones Belén

Deportivo Saprissa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Escorpiones Belén

Deportivo Saprissa

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	9	+10	21
10	Escorpiones Belén	8	−12	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Escorpiones Belén

Formation not confirmed

76 J. Alvarez

16 E. Salazar

13 P. Morera

71 C. Ordonez

11 A. Fernandez

8 C. Munoz

10 G. Fonseca

7 A. Hidalgo

94 J. Ruiz

15 D. Vega

21 J. Venegas

Coach · Andres Arias

Substitutes

1 · R. Montenegro

6 · L. Mena

47 · M. Camejo

9 · R. Montiel

77 · I. Espinoza

3 · J. Tello

18 · R. Pena

99 · D. Pimpinati

80 · D. Flores

19 · J. Serrano

Deportivo Saprissa

Formation not confirmed

40 A. Madriz

53 J. Carvajal

3 P. Arboine

21 F. Escobar

5 J. Mora

50 M. Elizondo

28 G. Torres

20 M. Torres

23 L. Paradela

24 O. Sinclair

7 N. Williams

Coach · Hernan Medford

Substitutes

13 · I. Alfaro

22 · J. M. Azofeifa Rivas

4 · K. Waston

8 · D. Guzman

25 · S. Acuna

39 · A. Barahona

19 · K. Arboine

26 · A. Soto

14 · A. Rodriguez

11 · B. Hernandez

Our number · deportivo saprissa winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

57% The market67%

Us57%

~~Market~~67%

We make Deportivo Saprissa a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo saprissa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Escorpiones Belén win	20%	13%	+7
Draw	23%	21%	+3
Deportivo Saprissa win	57%	67%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	53%	58%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	37%	−6
Escorpiones Belén or draw	43%	33%	+10
Escorpiones Belén clean sheet	17%	–	–
Deportivo Saprissa clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.6 10.9 10.0 6.1 2.8 1 5.8 11.0 9.6 5.9 2.7 2 3.0 5.2 4.7 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Escorpiones Belén down, Deportivo Saprissa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,319 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.4% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Escorpiones Belén at home: 0.25 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). Deportivo Saprissa away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Escorpiones Belén, 1.83 for Deportivo Saprissa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–1 ESC

Form · last six in Primera División

ESCORPIONES BELÉN

LLLLLL0–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA

WLWWLW3–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	9	+10	21
2	Sporting San Jose	10	+10	20
3	CS Cartagines	10	+6	18
4	LD Alajuelense	10	+5	15
5	San Carlos	8	+2	15
6	Inter San Carlos	10	−3	15
7	Puntarenas FC	10	−2	13
8	Perez Zeledon	10	−7	9
9	CS Herediano	9	−9	5
10	Escorpiones Belén	8	−12	1