Deportivo Saprissa v Sporting San Jose prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 05:30

Deportivo Saprissa 6–0 Sporting San Jose DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Saprissa win~~61%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.233

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.351

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Saprissa win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Saprissa was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–22–17
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Saprissa v Sporting San Jose
17′We published Deportivo Saprissa at 61%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–5
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Deportivo Saprissa 1–0 Sporting San Jose
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Deportivo Saprissa win: 61% at kick-off, 83% now
18′Deportivo Saprissa find the net on 18′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–5
20′Deportivo Saprissa ahead on 10′ through S. Acuna. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–5
26′We published Deportivo Saprissa at 61%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Deportivo Saprissa 2–0 Sporting San Jose
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Deportivo Saprissa win: 61% at kick-off, 96% now
27′A goal for Deportivo Saprissa on 26′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Sporting San Jose
38′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
38′Deportivo Saprissa score on 38′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Deportivo Saprissa 3–0 Sporting San Jose
43′We published Deportivo Saprissa at 61%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Saprissa 3–0 Sporting San Jose
48′HALF-TIME Deportivo Saprissa 3–0 Sporting San Jose
54′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Deportivo Saprissa 4–0 Sporting San Jose
56′Deportivo Saprissa find the net on 55′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Deportivo Saprissa
68′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Deportivo Saprissa 5–0 Sporting San Jose
69′A goal for Deportivo Saprissa on 69′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
78′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Deportivo Saprissa 6–0 Sporting San Jose
79′Deportivo Saprissa score on 79′ to make it 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportivo Saprissa · On: D. Guzman · Off: G. Torres
79′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportivo Saprissa · On: D. Woodly · Off: A. Soto
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportivo Saprissa · On: B. Hernandez · Off: M. Torres
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportivo Saprissa · On: O. Sinclair · Off: N. Williams
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportivo Saprissa · On: A. Rodriguez · Off: L. Paradela
90′Full time, 6–0. We called Deportivo Saprissa at 61% — that one lands. 6–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Saprissa 6–0 Sporting San Jose
FTDeportivo Saprissa 6–0 Sporting San Jose · Deportivo Saprissa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Saprissa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Saprissa 61%, draw 22%, Sporting San Jose 17%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Saprissa v Sporting San JoseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Saprissa win61%

Draw22%

Sporting San Jose win17%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 03:00

RoundApertura · matchday 11

Line-ups

Deportivo Saprissa

Sporting San Jose

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Saprissa

Sporting San Jose

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Saprissa

Formation not confirmed

25 S. Acuna

4 K. Waston

7 N. Williams

40 A. Madriz

22 J. M. Azofeifa Rivas

21 F. Escobar

23 L. Paradela

26 A. Soto

17 G. G. Taylor Dosman

28 G. Torres

20 M. Torres

Coach · Hernan Medford

Substitutes

13 · I. Alfaro

3 · P. Arboine

5 · J. Mora

8 · D. Guzman

6 · O. Duarte

39 · A. Barahona

46 · D. Woodly

11 · B. Hernandez

24 · O. Sinclair

14 · A. Rodriguez

Sporting San Jose

Formation not confirmed

23 L. Moreira

20 R. Bolanos

3 K. Espinoza

9 M. George Clayton

6 G. Leiva

19 J. Mendez

8 C. Pineda

7 J. Pinto

34 M. Rojas Rodriguez

22 Y. Salas

5 A. Soto

Coach · Andres Carevic

Substitutes

99 · R. Leal

98 · I. Gomez

10 · A. Lopez

14 · D. Colindres

36 · J. Hernandez

28 · J. Navarro

33 · E. Pastrana

21 · M. Urena

2 · Y. Salinas

16 · R. Ramirez

Our number · deportivo saprissa winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

61% The market52%

Us61%

~~Market~~52%

We make Deportivo Saprissa a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Saprissa v Sporting San Jose~~1.90 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 20~~1 v 3

~~The market · Deportivo Saprissa win~~52% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Saprissa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Saprissa win	61%	52%	+9
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Sporting San Jose win	17%	23%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Deportivo Saprissa or draw	83%	77%	+6
Deportivo Saprissa clean sheet	41%	–	–
Sporting San Jose clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 6.5 5.4 2.5 1 11.6 10.5 4.6 2 11.0 9.7 4.3 3 7.0 6.1 2.7 4 3.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Saprissa down, Sporting San Jose across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,325 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Saprissa at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting San Jose away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Deportivo Saprissa, 0.89 for Sporting San Jose. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPO 4–2 DEP · SPO 1–3 DEP · DEP 1–2 SPO · SPO 0–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 23 Aug

DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA

LWWLWL0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–1

SPORTING SAN JOSE

WWLWWW3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	10	+9	21
2	CS Cartagines	11	+8	21
3	Sporting San Jose	10	+10	20
4	San Carlos	11	−1	18
5	Inter San Carlos	11	−2	18
6	LD Alajuelense	11	+5	16
7	Puntarenas FC	11	−7	12
8	Escorpiones Belén	11	−5	10
9	Perez Zeledon	11	−10	9
10	CS Herediano	11	−7	8