CS Herediano v San Carlos prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 05:30

CS Herediano 0–1 San Carlos CS HEREDIANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CS Herediano win~~55%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.029

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.039

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CS Herediano win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF CS Herediano v San Carlos
2′Much as we predicted: CS Herediano was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–19
3′Much as we predicted: CS Herediano was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–19
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' CS Herediano 0–1 San Carlos
23′B. Martinez scores for San Carlos on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–28–50
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' CS Herediano win: 55% at kick-off, 22% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' San Carlos win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was CS Herediano win 22%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' CS Herediano win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' CS Herediano win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was San Carlos win 19%)
24′B. Martinez scores for San Carlos on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–28–50
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' CS Herediano win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' CS Herediano win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was San Carlos win 19%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' CS Herediano win: 55% at kick-off, 22% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' San Carlos win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was CS Herediano win 22%)
45′We said CS Herediano at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' CS Herediano win: 55% at kick-off, 14% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' CS Herediano win: 55% at kick-off, 22% now
45′HALF-TIME CS Herediano 0–1 San Carlos
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–28–59
46′SECOND HALF CS Herediano 0–1 San Carlos
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–28–59
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' San Carlos · On: R. Vidal · Off: B. Martinez
61′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CS Herediano · On: J. Henestrosa · Off: S. Vargas
61′SUBSTITUTION · 46' San Carlos · On: R. Vidal · Off: B. Martinez
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' CS Herediano · On: A. Suarez · Off: E. Juarez
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' CS Herediano · On: A. Hudson · Off: R. Leal
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' San Carlos · On: C. Martinez · Off: E. Hernandez
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' CS Herediano win: 55% at kick-off, 13% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' San Carlos win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was CS Herediano win 13%)
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' CS Herediano win: 55% at kick-off, 13% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' San Carlos win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was CS Herediano win 13%)
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' San Carlos · On: R. Cordoba · Off: J. Pilarte
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' CS Herediano 0–2 San Carlos
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' San Carlos
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' San Carlos · On: A. Guevara · Off: K. Cerdas
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CS Herediano · On: E. Rubio · Off: K. Fuller
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' San Carlos
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' CS Herediano
FTFULL TIME CS Herediano 0–1 San Carlos
FTCS Herediano 0–1 San Carlos · CS Herediano win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

CS Herediano win55%

Draw26%

San Carlos win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 03:00

VenueEstadio Carlos Alvarado

Line-ups

CS Herediano

San Carlos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CS Herediano

San Carlos

21Days since last match20

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	San Carlos	8	+2	15
9	CS Herediano	9	−9	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

CS Herediano

Formation not confirmed

92 A. Walker

5 H. Quiros

99 K. Brown

38 G. Montes

37 K. Fuller

8 A. Cruz

28 S. Vargas

26 E. Juarez

10 E. Aguilar

97 R. Leal

11 R. Araya

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · D. Carvajal

16 · D. Araya

20 · R. Rivera

21 · E. Rubio

25 · E. Bravo

27 · A. Suarez

32 · A. Hudson

34 · J. Henestrosa

45 · N. Bennette

80 · D. Matthews

San Carlos

Formation not confirmed

23 J. Vega

17 J. Evans

6 Y. Piedra

22 J. Aguero

16 G. Castillo Cespedes

8 E. Hernandez

10 K. Cerdas

20 C. Agualimpia

41 J. Pilarte

21 J. Venegas

9 B. Martinez

Coach · –

Substitutes

77 · J. Vega

2 · J. Valverde

4 · P. Fonseca

5 · C. Martinez

7 · A. Guevara

11 · R. Cordoba

18 · J. Aguilar

27 · D. Masis

30 · P. Aguero

88 · R. Vidal

Our number · cs herediano winPublished 11 Oct 03:01

55% The market56%

Us55%

~~Market~~56%

We make CS Herediano a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Herediano win	55%	56%	−1
Draw	26%	26%	0
San Carlos win	19%	19%	0
Over 2.5 goals	42%	48%	−6
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	72%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−6
CS Herediano or draw	81%	81%	0
CS Herediano clean sheet	45%	–	–
San Carlos clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 9.8 7.4 3.0 1 14.6 11.8 4.6 2 11.5 9.0 3.6 3 6.0 4.7 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Herediano down, San Carlos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,316 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 2.45 goals a meeting; 9 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CS Herediano at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). San Carlos away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for CS Herediano, 0.80 for San Carlos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.45

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 20

~~Both scored~~12 of 20

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 CSH · CSH 1–0 SAN · SAN 1–0 CSH · CSH 3–1 SAN

Form · last six in Primera División

CS HEREDIANO

LLLLWL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–2

SAN CARLOS

WWLWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	9	+10	21
2	CS Cartagines	9	+8	18
3	Sporting San Jose	9	+8	17
4	San Carlos	8	+2	15
5	LD Alajuelense	9	+5	14
6	Inter San Carlos	9	−3	14
7	Puntarenas FC	9	−2	12
8	Perez Zeledon	9	−7	8
9	CS Herediano	9	−9	5
10	Escorpiones Belén	8	−12	1