CS Herediano v CS Cartagines prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CS HeredianoDrawCS Cartagines

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CS Herediano 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CS Herediano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Herediano 46%, draw 28%, CS Cartagines 26%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on CS Herediano v CS CartaginesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

CS Herediano win46%

Draw28%

CS Cartagines win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Carlos Alvarado

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Herediano

CS Cartagines

7Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

Last match: 22 Oct · CONCACAF Central American Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	CS Cartagines	12	+9	24
8	CS Herediano	12	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cs herediano winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 25 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

46% The market47%

Us46%

~~Market~~47%

We make CS Herediano a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CS Herediano v CS Cartagines~~1.37 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 24~~8 v 2

~~The market · CS Herediano win~~47% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CS Herediano win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Herediano win	46%	47%	−1
Draw	28%	29%	−1
CS Cartagines win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	45%	47%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	23%	−3
CS Herediano or draw	74%	75%	−1
CS Herediano clean sheet	39%	–	–
CS Cartagines clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 10.2 9.3 4.4 1 13.4 12.8 6.0 2 9.2 8.6 4.1 3 4.2 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Herediano down, CS Cartagines across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,332 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CS Herediano at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). CS Cartagines away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for CS Herediano, 0.94 for CS Cartagines. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CSC 1–0 CSH · CSH 0–0 CSC · CSC 0–1 CSH · CSC 1–2 CSH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept

CS HEREDIANO

LWLLDW2–3 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

CS CARTAGINES

WWLLWW3–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	12	+14	24
2	CS Cartagines	12	+9	24
3	Sporting San Jose	13	+6	24
4	LD Alajuelense	12	+6	19
5	San Carlos	12	−1	19
6	Inter San Carlos	12	−3	18
7	Puntarenas FC	12	−6	15
8	CS Herediano	12	−4	11
9	Escorpiones Belén	13	−8	10
10	Perez Zeledon	12	−13	9