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CS Cartagines v Puntarenas FC

CS Cartagines

3–1Full time

Puntarenas FC

Primera División · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 03:35

CS Cartagines 3–1 Puntarenas FC CS CARTAGINES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CS Cartagines win~~56%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.294

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.219

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CS Cartagines win at 56%.
0′Much as we predicted: CS Cartagines was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–19
1′KICK-OFF CS Cartagines v Puntarenas FC
11′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Puntarenas FC
20′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Puntarenas FC
24′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Y. Tejeda · Puntarenas FC
27′We published CS Cartagines at 56%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' CS Cartagines 1–0 Puntarenas FC
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' CS Cartagines win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
28′A goal for CS Cartagines on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–5
42′🟨 YELLOW · 43' CS Cartagines
45′We said CS Cartagines at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–40–18
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' CS Cartagines 1–1 Puntarenas FC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' CS Cartagines win: 56% at kick-off, 42% now
45′SECOND HALF CS Cartagines 1–1 Puntarenas FC
47′45′ and it is 1–1: Puntarenas FC have scored. 1–1 · 42–41–18
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' CS Cartagines
52′We said CS Cartagines at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–44–17
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was CS Cartagines win 39%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' CS Cartagines win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
65′We said CS Cartagines at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–55–14
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' CS Cartagines · On: D. Lopez · Off: G. M. Morera
67′We said CS Cartagines at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–58–13
67′CS Cartagines find the net on 68′. 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
67′We published CS Cartagines at 56%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' CS Cartagines · On: J. Gaete · Off: C. Montero
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' CS Cartagines 2–1 Puntarenas FC · Tepa
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' CS Cartagines win: 56% at kick-off, 87% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' CS Cartagines win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 88–11–1
75′We published CS Cartagines at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Puntarenas FC · On: J. Hadden · Off: U. Segura
79′SUBSTITUTION · 65' CS Cartagines · On: D. Lopez · Off: G. M. Morera
79′SUBSTITUTION · 65' CS Cartagines · On: J. Gaete · Off: C. Montero
79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' CS Cartagines · On: D. Lopez · Off: G. M. Morera
79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' CS Cartagines · On: J. Gaete · Off: C. Montero
79′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Puntarenas FC · On: K. E. Cabezas Rodriguez · Off: Y. Tejeda
79′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Puntarenas FC · On: W. Hernandez · Off: P. Alvarez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Puntarenas FC · On: D. Castrillo · Off: D. Rodriguez
82′🟨 YELLOW · 44' A. Hernandez · CS Cartagines
82′🟨 YELLOW · 50' M. Moran · CS Cartagines
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Puntarenas FC · On: L. Comachi · Off: R. Cole
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' CS Cartagines · On: B. Alfaro · Off: Tepa Corrected
84′We published CS Cartagines at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' CS Cartagines win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
93′A goal for CS Cartagines on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' CS Cartagines 3–1 Puntarenas FC · J. Gaete
93′SUBSTITUTION · 86' CS Cartagines · On: D. Gonzalez Hernandez · Off: J. Quiros
93′SUBSTITUTION · 86' CS Cartagines · On: G. Castro · Off: A. Hernandez
94′We published CS Cartagines at 56%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
94′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
97′Full time, 3–1. We called CS Cartagines at 56% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
97′🟨 YELLOW · 98' Puntarenas FC
FTFULL TIME CS Cartagines 3–1 Puntarenas FC
FTCS Cartagines 3–1 Puntarenas FC · CS Cartagines win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on CS Cartagines v Puntarenas FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off

CS Cartagines win56%

Draw25%

Puntarenas FC win19%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 01:00

Line-ups

CS Cartagines

Puntarenas FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CS Cartagines

Puntarenas FC

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	CS Cartagines	10	6	18
7	Puntarenas FC	10	-5	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CS Cartagines

Formation not confirmed

33 C. Moya

4 L. A. Olivas Salcedo

12 J. Quiros

20 D. Mesen

18 C. Barahona

6 C. Montero

7 M. Moran

15 L. Flores

31 G. M. Morera

9 Tepa

22 A. Hernandez

Coach · Amarini Villatoro

Substitutes

34 · D. Hidalgo

2 · R. Cordero

19 · D. Gonzalez Hernandez

27 · J. Mora

26 · B. Alfaro

30 · A. Mora

8 · D. Lopez

11 · L. Alfaro

13 · J. Gaete

16 · G. Castro

Puntarenas FC

Formation not confirmed

97 A. Pineda

17 W. Decas

12 K. Villalobos

41 D. Cordero

25 K. Gomez

8 U. Segura

5 Y. Tejeda

60 J. Leiva

21 D. Rodriguez

77 P. Alvarez

10 R. Cole

Coach · Cesar Alpizar

Substitutes

35 · D. Rojas

29 · V. Edghill

2 · W. Cortes

11 · R. Taylor

6 · K. E. Cabezas Rodriguez

33 · J. Hadden

22 · D. Castrillo

16 · W. Hernandez

7 · L. Comachi

37 · S. Pastrana

Our number · cs cartagines winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off

56% The market62%

Us56%

~~Market~~62%

We make CS Cartagines a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CS Cartagines v Puntarenas FC~~1.65 – 0.86

~~Last six in Primera División~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~3 v 7

~~The market · CS Cartagines win~~62% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cs cartagines win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Cartagines win	56%	62%	−6
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Puntarenas FC win	19%	15%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
CS Cartagines or draw	81%	85%	−4
CS Cartagines clean sheet	43%	–	–
Puntarenas FC clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 8.5 7.0 3.0 1 13.4 11.5 4.9 2 11.0 9.3 4.0 3 6.1 5.1 2.2 4 2.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Cartagines down, Puntarenas FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,321 Primera División matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 2.29 goals a meeting; 6 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CS Cartagines at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Puntarenas FC away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for CS Cartagines, 0.86 for Puntarenas FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 17

~~Both scored~~8 of 17

~~Last meetings~~PUN 1–3 CSC · CSC 3–2 PUN · PUN 0–2 CSC · PUN 1–1 CSC

Form · last six in Primera División

CS CARTAGINES

WWWWLL4–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

PUNTARENAS FC

WWLDWD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Saprissa	10	9	21
2	Sporting San Jose	10	10	20
3	CS Cartagines	10	6	18
4	San Carlos	10	0	18
5	LD Alajuelense	10	5	15
6	Inter San Carlos	10	-3	15
7	Puntarenas FC	10	-5	12
8	Perez Zeledon	10	-7	9
9	CS Herediano	10	-7	7
10	Escorpiones Belén	10	-8	7